Application of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) for a case study and scenario assessment of flood risk in the White Volta Basin of the Upper East Region, Ghana

Abstract

In recent years, Ghana, particularly the inhabitants of the Upper East Region, has experienced profound impact of flooding, largely attributable to the complex interplay of climatic factors. This research embarks on a comprehensive assessment of flood risk zones nestled within the White Volta Basin, situated in the Upper East Region. The study employs advanced cartographic methodologies and uses Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in conjunction with the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to systematically categorize areas susceptible to inundation. Leveraging geospatial datasets acquired from satellites such as Landsat and Sentinel. Topographic, slope, and Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) maps have been constructed. The empirical findings underscore the susceptibility of specific regions, including the Talensi District, territories within Bawku West, and some segments of the Bolgatanga Municipal area, to escalated flood risk. Additionally, the research underscores the high vulnerability of communities such as Nunku, Tolla, Zaare, Pwalugu, Balungu, Winkongo, Biung, and Tongo to the negative impact of inundation. Significantly, the study unveils a pivotal factor in the perpetuation of flood devastation—namely, the role of water discharge. This intrinsic linkage between discharge rates and flood occurrences underscores the pressing need to address this critical component in mitigation strategies to reduce adverse impacts on the basin’s resident communities. The insights derived from the study offer some level of hope for residents, providing essential knowledge concerning flood-prone areas and optimal timing for agricultural activities to safeguard their cherished livelihoods.