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© 2017. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.

Abstract

Background/Aims

This study aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in treatment-naïve patients receiving oral antiviral treatment for chronic hepatitis B (CHB).

Methods

We investigated 2,061 Korean treatment-naïve patients with CHB treated with entecavir as an initial therapy. A risk score model for HCC development was developed based on multivariable Cox regression model in a single center (n=990) and was validated using the time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) in three other centers (n=1,071). The difference of HCC development among risk groups (low, intermediate, and high) categorized by risk score was also investigated.

Results

The cumulative incidence rates of HCC at 5 years were 11.2% and 8.9% in the testing and validation cohorts, respectively. HCC-Risk Estimating Score in CHB patients Under Entecavir (HCC-RESCUE) is formulated as (age+15×gender [female=0 / male=1]+23×cirrhosis [absence=0 / presence=1]). The AUROCs at 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years were 0.82, 0.81, and 0.81, respectively, in the validation cohort. A significant difference of HCC development in each risk group was determined by the 5-year HCC risk score in the validation cohort (low risk group, 2.1%; intermediate risk group, 9.3%; high risk group, 41.2%, p<0.001).

Conclusions

The study presents a new risk score model with a good ability to predict HCC development and determine high risk patients for HCC development consisting of readily available clinical factors in treatment-naïve CHB patients receiving entecavir.

Details

Title
Risk score model for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma in treatment-naïve patients receiving oral antiviral treatment for chronic hepatitis B
Author
Sohn, Won; Ju-Yeon Cho; Kim, Ji Hoon; Jung Il Lee; Kim, Hyung Joon; Woo, Min-Ah; Sin-Ho, Jung; Yong-Han, Paik  VIAFID ORCID Logo 
Pages
170-178
Section
Original Article
Publication year
2017
Publication date
Jun 2017
Publisher
Korean Association for the Study of the Liver
ISSN
22872728
e-ISSN
2287285X
Source type
Scholarly Journal
Language of publication
English
ProQuest document ID
3125556230
Copyright
© 2017. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.