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Abstract
Urban sprawl, a consequence of urban growth, profoundly impacts land use/land cover, particularly in regions like the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, as this Biome hosts most of the Brazilian population and is recognized as a global biodiversity hotspot. This study uses geospatial techniques, the Cellular Automata model, and structural landscape metrics to simulate future urban land use changes for 2050. The simulation suggests a significant increase in urban areas by 2050, changing from 32.1% in 2020 to nearly 43% by 2050, mainly encroaching upon agricultural lands. Conversely, forest fragments are projected to decline (lost 3% of areas), and the connectivity analysis highlighted the loss along the rivers, emphasizing the need for proactive conservation strategies. Preserving periurban agriculture is vital for food security and sustainable development, while innovative management of riparian ecosystems enhances urban biodiversity and citizen well-being. Sustainable urban planning and conservation efforts are imperative to mitigate the adverse effects of urban sprawl and foster resilient cities. This research provides crucial insights for decision-makers aiming to balance urban development with environmental preservation in the face of rapid urbanization.
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1 Federal University of São Carlos, João Leme dos Santos Road, km 110, Sorocaba, SP 18052-780, Brazil; Federal University of São Carlos, João Leme dos Santos Road, km 110, Sorocaba, SP 18052-780, Brazil; Department of Geography and Planning, Queen’s University, Kingston, ON K7L 3N6, Canada
2 Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Geosciences Institute, Rio de Janeiro, 21941-916, RJ, Brazil; Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Geosciences Institute, Rio de Janeiro, 21941-916, RJ, Brazil
3 Research Institute for the Environment and Livelihoods, Charles Darwin University, Ellengowan Drive, Casuarina, NT 0810, Australia; Research Institute for the Environment and Livelihoods, Charles Darwin University, Ellengowan Drive, Casuarina, NT 0810, Australia
4 Federal University of São Carlos, João Leme dos Santos Road, km 110, Sorocaba, SP 18052-780, Brazil; Federal University of São Carlos, João Leme dos Santos Road, km 110, Sorocaba, SP 18052-780, Brazil
5 Department of Geography and Planning, Queen’s University, Kingston, ON K7L 3N6, Canada; Department of Geography and Planning, Queen’s University, Kingston, ON K7L 3N6, Canada