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Abstract

Public Safety Power Shutoffs (PSPS) are a proactive strategy to mitigate fire hazards from power system infrastructure failures. System operators employ PSPS to deactivate portions of the electric grid with heightened wildfire risks to prevent wildfire ignition and redispatch generators to minimize load shedding. A measure of vegetation flammability, called the Wildland Fire Potential Index (WFPI), has been widely used to evaluate the risk of nearby wildfires to power system operation. However, the WFPI does not correlate as strongly to historically observed wildfire ignition probabilities (OWIP) as WFPI-based the Large Fire Probability (WLFP).Prior work chose not to incorporate wildfire-driven failure probabilities, such as the WLFP, because constraints with Bernoulli random variables to represent wildfire ignitions could require non-linear or non-convex constraints. This paper uses a deterministic equivalent of an otherwise complicating line de-energization constraint by quantifying the wildfire risk of operating transmission line as a sum of each energized line's wildfire ignition log probability (log(WIP)) rather than as a sum of each energized line's WFPI. A day-ahead unit commitment and line de-energization PSPS framework is used to assess the cost differences driven by the choice between the WFPI and WLFP risk metrics. Training the optimization on scenarios developed by mapping WLFP to log(WIP) rather than mapping the WFPI to log(WIP) leads to reductions in the total real-time costs. For the IEEE RTS 24-bus test system, mapping transmission line WLFP values to log(WIP) resulted in a 14.8 % (on average) decrease in expected real-time costs.

Details

1009240
Business indexing term
Identifier / keyword
Title
Wildfire Risk Metric Impact on Public Safety Power Shut-off Cost Savings
Publication title
arXiv.org; Ithaca
Publication year
2024
Publication date
Nov 17, 2024
Section
Computer Science; Electrical Engineering and Systems Science
Publisher
Cornell University Library, arXiv.org
Source
arXiv.org
Place of publication
Ithaca
Country of publication
United States
University/institution
Cornell University Library arXiv.org
e-ISSN
2331-8422
Source type
Working Paper
Language of publication
English
Document type
Working Paper
Publication history
 
 
Online publication date
2024-11-19
Milestone dates
2024-11-17 (Submission v1)
Publication history
 
 
   First posting date
19 Nov 2024
ProQuest document ID
3130503869
Document URL
https://www.proquest.com/working-papers/wildfire-risk-metric-impact-on-public-safety/docview/3130503869/se-2?accountid=208611
Full text outside of ProQuest
Copyright
© 2024. This work is published under http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.
Last updated
2024-11-20
Database
ProQuest One Academic