Content area

Abstract

Prediction-based (PB) inference is increasingly used in applications where the outcome of interest is difficult to obtain, but its predictors are readily available. Unlike traditional inference, PB inference performs statistical inference using a partially observed outcome and a set of covariates by leveraging a prediction of the outcome generated from a machine learning (ML) model. Motwani and Witten (2023) recently revisited two innovative PB inference approaches for ordinary least squares. They found that the method proposed by Wang et al. (2020) yields a consistent estimator for the association of interest when the ML model perfectly captures the underlying regression function. Conversely, the prediction-powered inference (PPI) method proposed by Angelopoulos et al. (2023) yields valid inference regardless of the model's accuracy. In this paper, we study the statistical efficiency of the PPI estimator. Our analysis reveals that a more efficient estimator, proposed 25 years ago by Chen and Chen (2000), can be obtained by simply adding a weight to the PPI estimator. We also contextualize PB inference with methods from the economics and statistics literature dating back to the 1960s. Our extensive theoretical and numerical analyses indicate that the Chen and Chen (CC) estimator offers a balance between robustness to ML model specification and statistical efficiency, making it the preferred choice for use in practice.

Details

1009240
Identifier / keyword
Title
Another look at inference after prediction
Publication title
arXiv.org; Ithaca
Publication year
2024
Publication date
Dec 6, 2024
Section
Computer Science; Statistics
Publisher
Cornell University Library, arXiv.org
Source
arXiv.org
Place of publication
Ithaca
Country of publication
United States
University/institution
Cornell University Library arXiv.org
e-ISSN
2331-8422
Source type
Working Paper
Language of publication
English
Document type
Working Paper
Publication history
 
 
Online publication date
2024-12-09
Milestone dates
2024-11-29 (Submission v1); 2024-12-06 (Submission v2)
Publication history
 
 
   First posting date
09 Dec 2024
ProQuest document ID
3134986567
Document URL
https://www.proquest.com/working-papers/another-look-at-inference-after-prediction/docview/3134986567/se-2?accountid=208611
Full text outside of ProQuest
Copyright
© 2024. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.
Last updated
2024-12-10
Database
2 databases
  • ProQuest One Academic
  • ProQuest One Academic