Divergence over solutions to adapt or transform Australia’s Great Barrier Reef

Introduction

Crises, including extreme ecological and climatic events, can potentially act as a window of opportunity for transformative policy solutions¹. As growing climate-driven events pose additional threats, analysts have theorised that such crises shift perspectives on climate change and create more political pressure for transformative responses^2,3. Such transformative responses can include policies that seek to radically alter the status-quo, such as emissions reduction policies that promote low carbon energy and destabilise fossil fuel regimes^4,5. However, the challenge remains that stakeholders, policymakers, and the public often have divergent frames, discourses, risk perceptions, beliefs, and interests influencing their opinions about what needs to be done (if anything)^6,7. Indeed, crises have also been found to yield a range of policy responses that may be undesirable, including stability and non-transformative solutions^8,9.

Australia’s Great Barrier Reef (herein GBR) is a case in point. Coral reefs are some of the most susceptible ecosystems to climate change, with a projected catastrophic 70–90% decline globally at 1.5 °C of heating and over 99% decline at 2 °C, as global temperatures continue to rise¹⁰. The GBR is the largest reef in the world and has experienced multiple mass bleaching events, increasing in frequency and severity in recent years¹¹. In the aftermath of the 2016 mass coral bleaching, a convergence of stakeholder views that climate change is the biggest threat to the GBR finally emerged^{12, 13–14}. However, while a convergence of views among different stakeholders reduces contention about the problem of climate change and is therefore welcomed by reef managers and climate scientists alike, little is known about whether this convergence shapes the way forward—namely how it shapes perspectives on solutions needed to protect the climate-impacted GBR. And specifically, whether these crisis events might create potential for more transformative solutions.

Transformation and transitions towards sustainability are also now widely discussed in the scientific community and in policy circles, particularly in relation to the climate crisis¹⁵. Emerging from resilience theory^16,17 transformation refers to a ‘fundamental shift in human and environmental interactions and feedbacks’¹⁸. Sustainability transitions are societal-level responses to complex, systemic environmental problems and represent more sustainable modes of production and consumption of natural resources^19,20....