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The IT market in Russia is forecast to return to growth in US dollar terms from 2025 after a multi-year contraction caused by the Russia-Ukraine war. The medium-term outlook is subject to uncertainty because of the geopolitical situation, but in the existing framework of conflict and sanctions, the IT market will continue to be negatively impacted by restricted access to foundational technologies such as semiconductors and cloud platforms, which will be bottlenecks for digital projects in Russia. The government has an ambitious industrial strategy for developing domestic technologies, but these cannot compete with global scale leading-edge technologies, and the strategy has considerable execution risk in the context of conflict and brain drain in the tech sector.