Content area

Abstract

Local climate information is crucial for impact assessment and decision-making, yet coarse global climate simulations cannot capture small-scale phenomena. Current statistical downscaling methods infer these phenomena as temporally decoupled spatial patches. However, to preserve physical properties, estimating spatio-temporally coherent high-resolution weather dynamics for multiple variables across long time horizons is crucial. We present a novel generative approach that uses a score-based diffusion model trained on high-resolution reanalysis data to capture the statistical properties of local weather dynamics. After training, we condition on coarse climate model data to generate weather patterns consistent with the aggregate information. As this inference task is inherently uncertain, we leverage the probabilistic nature of diffusion models and sample multiple trajectories. We evaluate our approach with high-resolution reanalysis information before applying it to the climate model downscaling task. We then demonstrate that the model generates spatially and temporally coherent weather dynamics that align with global climate output.

Details

1009240
Title
Spatiotemporally Coherent Probabilistic Generation of Weather from Climate
Publication title
arXiv.org; Ithaca
Publication year
2024
Publication date
Dec 19, 2024
Section
Computer Science; Physics (Other)
Publisher
Cornell University Library, arXiv.org
Source
arXiv.org
Place of publication
Ithaca
Country of publication
United States
University/institution
Cornell University Library arXiv.org
e-ISSN
2331-8422
Source type
Working Paper
Language of publication
English
Document type
Working Paper
Publication history
 
 
Online publication date
2024-12-23
Milestone dates
2024-12-19 (Submission v1)
Publication history
 
 
   First posting date
23 Dec 2024
ProQuest document ID
3148681323
Document URL
https://www.proquest.com/working-papers/spatiotemporally-coherent-probabilistic/docview/3148681323/se-2?accountid=208611
Full text outside of ProQuest
Copyright
© 2024. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.
Last updated
2024-12-24
Database
2 databases
  • ProQuest One Academic
  • ProQuest One Academic