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Debt sustainability analysis (DSA) is a tool used by institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the European Commission to assess whether countries can continue with their fiscal policies without running into debt that is too large to service without major corrections. Under European Union fiscal rules updated in April 2024 1 , the European Commission uses DSA to assess whether countries are likely to breach debt and deficit limits of 60 percent and 3 percent of GDP, and if countries that already exceed those levels are likely to be able to rein in their debts within a reasonable timeframe. Such DSA-based analysis is expected to be a reliable watchdog of public finances. It is based on economic data, integrating macro, budgetary and financial variables into a transparent risk-based assessment of debt. However, a significant element is missing from DSA as applied by the Commission and other institutions: political risk. This remains absent even though institutions are aware of this risk, which has been receiving increasing attention in their reports. Political events such as snap elections, collapsing government coalitions and regional conflicts put pressure on public finance, as do issues that must be managed at political level, such as inequality (Alesina and Perotti, 1996). Climate change could also lead to increased political instability and therefore fiscal unpredictability (Dell et al, 2014). Political risk is already a factor in sovereign ratings, but is it also relevant for DSA? In this analysis, we discuss how political risk can influence sovereign debt. We look first at how political risk can be measured and second at how it might alter debt sustainability projections.