Assessing pollution and water resources suitability for multiple uses under extended drought and climate change conditions: the case of the Grombalia aquifer in Tunisia

Abstract

Climate change and human activities are increasingly impacting groundwater resources, presenting significant challenges for regions like Grombalia, Tunisia. This study investigates recent changes in groundwater quality and explores the potential long-term effects of climate change on groundwater levels until the end of the century. Twenty groundwater samples were collected to assess key hydrochemical parameters, including major ions, physical parameters, and chemical oxygen demand. Using geochemical modeling and multivariate statistical analysis, natural and anthropogenic processes influencing water quality were identified. The collected data serve to calculate the Drinking Water Quality Index (DWQI) and Total Hardness to determine the groundwater suitability for human consumption. Ten water quality parameters were used to assess the groundwater suitability for irrigation purposes and to calculate the Irrigation Water Quality Index (IWQI). Additionally, a proxy model was developed to forecast future groundwater levels using climate projections from an ensemble of regional climate models. This research underscores the growing pressures on groundwater systems in Grombalia, offering novel insights into the water resource sustainability of the region in the face of climate change and human activities. The findings contribute to a deeper understanding of groundwater vulnerability in this critical region, emphasizing the need for proactive management strategies.