Content area
Abstract
The impact of a warming climate on tropical cyclones (TCs) remains unclear. Here, we find that the probability density function for western North Pacific TC lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) has an amplified bimodal distribution in recent years. This change implies a trend toward more extreme TCs and fewer moderate TCs. Changes in the TC LMI distribution are associated with alterations in the occurrence of rapidly intensifying TCs. Changes in TC tracks, due to alterations in the steering flow linked to a weakening Hadley cell, cause more TCs to move northwestward into a more favorable environment for intensification with large ocean heat content. Consequently, more rapidly intensifying TCs reach higher intensities, significantly contributing to the observed amplified bimodal distribution. These findings provide new insights into changes in TC intensity and highlight the increasing threat to coastal areas from more intense TCs in a warming climate.
Details
Coastal zone;
Global warming;
Cyclones;
Sea surface temperature;
Surface temperature;
Hurricanes;
Environmental conditions;
Probability density functions;
Enthalpy;
Tropical cyclones;
Coastal plains;
Oceans;
Coasts;
Tropical cyclone intensities;
Heat content;
Climate;
Probability density function;
Tropical cyclone tracks;
Steering
; Klotzbach, Philip J. 2
; Su, Tonghua 3 ; Wang, Chao 1
; Wu, Liguang 4
1 State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
2 Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
3 Fujian Key Laboratory of Severe Weather/Fujian Climate Center, CMA, Fuzhou, China
4 Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China