Spatiotemporal evolution of production-living-ecological spaces in the Aksu region

Abstract

为厘清干旱地区“三生空间”时空演变格局规律及驱动因素，本研究基于“三生空间”视角，以遥感影像解译的土地利用数据为基础，综合应用生态环境质量指数模型、地学信息图谱和最优参数地理探测器等方法分析阿克苏地区“三生空间”格局演变特征与驱动机制。结果表明：1990—2020年阿克苏地区各地类空间面积变化显著，农业生产空间和林业生态空间面积分别增加6 872.99 km²和960.94 km²，草地生态空间面积骤降11 993.18 km²。农业生产空间和其他生态空间重心迁移明显，前者表现出先向西北后向东南迁移的趋势，后者重心总体向东南迁移。“三生空间”各地类之间相互转换，转换的正效应>负效应，地区生态环境质量指数整体上升，逐渐趋向稳定。地理探测器结果表明该地区的“三生空间”演变深受自然和社会经济因素影响，自然因素对“三生空间”的影响力逐渐减小，社会经济因素影响力显著增强。

Given the backdrop of rapid socio-economic progress and the imperative of ecological preservation, elucidating the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and driving factors behind the“production-living-ecological space”（PLES）in arid regions is significant for the coordinated development of regional economy and ecology. This study adopts the PLES framework, employing land-use data derived from remote sensing images to analyze the evolutionary trends in the Aksu region. For this, it comprehensively applies the ecological environment quality index model, geographic information mapping, and optimal parameters-based geographical detector（OPGD） to scrutinize the characteristics and driving mechanisms of this evolution. Results indicated that between 1990 and 2020, various spatial areas within the Aksu region underwent significant changes. Agricultural production and forestry ecological space expanded by 6 872.99 km² and 960.94 km², respectively, while grassland ecological space plummeted by 11 993.18 km². The shift in the centroids of agricultural production and other ecological space is evident, with the former demonstrating a northwest-to-southeast trend and the latter migrating significantly southeast. Inter-conversions among the“three living spaces”demonstrate a predominance of positive effects outweighing negative ones. This trend contributes to an overall rise in the regional ecological environment quality index, gradually stabilizing over time. Geodetector analysis underscores the profound influence of natural and societal factors on the evolution of the PLES within the region. The impact of natural factors on these spaces has gradually waned, while socio-economic factors have significantly intensified.