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According to data from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), the rate of accidents per 100,000 flight hours for U.S. air carriers has significantly declined over time, dropping from 1.77 in 1965 to 0.20 in 1990, and further decreasing to 0.13 in 2020 (NTSB, 2021). [...]in case where the death was associated with a staff member e.g. pilots, the replacement of staff cost becomes relevant i.e. the replacement cost of an Airbus 320 pilot was estimated by Cavka & Cokorilo at 62,127$ (2012), whilst the cost of replacement of an F-16 fighter jet pilot according to the US National Commission on Military Aviation Safety (NCMAS) might be as high as 5.6$ million (NCMAS, 2020). [...]the second source of data in terms of credibility was entailing peer-reviewed articles found in scientific search engines such as Emerald, Proquest, ScienceDirect, Scopus, Web of Science and Wiley. [...]a third source of data, containing non-reviewed articles such as newspapers and web magazines was used, albeit with specific restrictions so as to avert bias.
Keywords: Transportation Safety, Aviation Industry, Cost Analysis, Regulation.
Introduction
Safety has a direct impact on the economic policy of an organization, especially when it concerns critical sectors such as military, commercial, and general aviation. It is apparent that such organizations prioritize aviation safety with great attention since even a single accident can cost not only human lives but also the financial survival of the respective company (Chance & Ferris, 1987).
According to data from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), the rate of accidents per 100,000 flight hours for U.S. air carriers has significantly declined over time, dropping from 1.77 in 1965 to 0.20 in 1990, and further decreasing to 0.13 in 2020 (NTSB, 2021). Also, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) revealed a significant decline in airline passenger fatalities by considering the total number of passengers boardings. Specifically, this rate stood at one fatality for every 7.9 million passenger boardings in 2020, which is a notable improvement from one fatality per 2.7 million boardings between 1998 and 2007. Looking further back in history, the risk of fatality for commercial airline passengers was one death per 750,000 boardings during the period of 1978-1987 and one death per 350,000 boardings between 1968 and 1977 (Barnett, 2020).
Nevertheless, despite aviation is currently safer than ever, accidents still occur globally. In this context, and by drawing on the literature, a critical review is conducted so as to analyze the financial consequences of aviation accidents and explore accident rates globally. Also, a special focus on Greece is attempted to facilitate comparison between worldwide and national accident rates. The aforementioned goals were pursued by discriminating between military, commercial and general aviation in order to pinpoint differences between these sectors. It is envisaged that through this process, additional knowledge will be built regarding the accident cost in aviation. By acknowledging that diagnosis is the initial response to overcoming challenges, it is envisioned that analyzing the current accident rates and costs will aid in the development of more advanced mitigation strategies aimed at safety optimization.
Background
Regarding the cost of accidents, it's worth mentioning that this varies depending on a multitude of factors such as the aircraft type, the location of the accident, the number of passengers on board, etc. (Roelen & Smeltink, 2008). Additionally, it is emphasized that in the event of an accident, each type of organization faces different consequences. For example, an airline may be financially disrupted due to damage to its reputation, while the military may not face such problems. Furthermore, of particular interest is the categorization of the cost according to the immediacy of its consequences. Based on this distinction, many researchers differentiate accident costs into direct and indirect costs (Scuffham et al., 2002).
Direct cost includes financial implications applied immediately at the respective organization. The most apparent direct cost stems from the aircraft's physical damage per se (Somerville et al., 2023). To calculate the physical damage cost, it is essential to assess the market value of the aircraft which is dependent upon its age and type. For example, a brand-new Airbus commercial aircraft may be as expensive as $100-$150 million (Airbus, 2018). Interestingly, after 10 years of use, the same aircraft's price will decrease by approximately 50% (Cokorilo et al., 2010). Nevertheless, it is underlined that physical damage cost is usually covered by insurance companies (Lane, 2005); thus, this cost does not pose an immediate threat to commercial or general aviation organizations.
Moreover, the value of an aircraft diminishes in case of involvement in an accident. That is, its resale value usually shrinks by 5-10% (Cavka & Cokorilo, 2012). In addition, physical damage creates another source of cost which stems from the aircraft's loss of use until the repairing procedures are completed. Additional direct cost dependent on the type of the accident may include site contamination clearance procedures, airport closure and loss of passengers' baggage. Next, regarding the cost associated with casualties or injured passengers, the airline company is liable to a minimum compensation (approximately 150,000$ per casualty) unless it is proven that the carrier held no responsibility for the accident (ICAO, 2019; Wilkie, 2012). Finally, in case where the death was associated with a staff member e.g. pilots, the replacement of staff cost becomes relevant i.e. the replacement cost of an Airbus 320 pilot was estimated by Cavka & Cokorilo at 62,127$ (2012), whilst the cost of replacement of an F-16 fighter jet pilot according to the US National Commission on Military Aviation Safety (NCMAS) might be as high as 5.6$ million (NCMAS, 2020).
Concerning the indirect accident costs, those usually include expenses related to search and rescue operations, the immediate response procedures conducted by the airline (Khorram-Manesh et al., 2020), the accident investigation procedures (FAA, 2021) which usually burdens the state or regulators, higher insurance expenses, income losses on investments e.g. stock prices, and damage to the organization's reputation (Zyglidopoulos, 2001). Due to their unpredictable nature, estimating these costs can be challenging, and their potential range of values can vary significantly. Concerning the stock market value, it is underscored that aviation disasters usually affect solely the company involved in the accident and not the industry as a whole (Akyildirim et al., 2020). Nonetheless, even colossal manufacturers such as Boeing and Airbus, have seen significant financial consequences to their shares even one day after an accident. For example, in the aftermath of a B737 MAX aircraft crash, Boeing lost 13% of its shares value within 24 hours (Tsang & Kitroeff, 2019). It is highlighted that such costs can have destructive potential for the financial survivability of the organization, as societal reluctance to use the company's services not only decreases profit prospects but also increases the power of the competitors (Jong & Broekman, 2021). Figure 1 illustrates the accident-related costs as an iceberg where the direct costs form the tip of it, whereas the indirect ones lie below the surface, indicating the usually unforeseen nature of their size.
Methodology
The central research question that drives the body of this literature review is two-fold, namely, "What is the cost of aviation accidents and how often do they occur nowadays?". The answer to this research question was facilitated by discriminating between military, commercial and general aviation so as to detect potential differences between those sectors. Also, a specific focus is made on Greece in order to facilitate a comparison between national and international accident rates.
The primary data used for this review are deriving from safety reports of major aviation regulators such as the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) etc. The credibility of those reports is considered undoubtful across the industry, thus they acted as the basis of this review. These reports (N=11) were critically selected by the researchers so as to be as recent and relevant as possible.
Moreover, the second source of data in terms of credibility was entailing peer-reviewed articles found in scientific search engines such as Emerald, Proquest, ScienceDirect, Scopus, Web of Science and Wiley. The process of distinguishing between the articles found in these databases adopted the basic steps of a systematic review, yielding (N=33) selected articles that were found particularly relevant for the purpose of this study. The main keywords used in the aforementioned databases included the words "Aviation", "Accident" and "Cost".
Finally, a third source of data, containing non-reviewed articles such as newspapers and web magazines was used, albeit with specific restrictions so as to avert bias. That said, non-reviewed articles were cited only for supporting facts publicly acknowledged as common knowledge e.g. the location or date of an accident that happened recently. Such facts were unlikely to be found in peer-reviewed articles nor in safety reports of major aviation regulators. In this rationale, this kind of sources (N=12) served the study's objectives without risking the introduction of bias in the conclusions of this research.
Military Aviation
Regarding accidents in the military aviation, these are usually categorized into five classes (A, B, C, D and E), depending on the severity of the accident (Manning et al., 2004). Thus, a class A accident means that its severity was the maximum among the five forementioned classes (usually including personnel death or total destruction of the aircraft). At this point, it is pertinent to make an extensive reference to a report submitted to the United States Congress by the National Commission on Military Aviation Safety (NCMAS) regarding aviation accidents of the U.S. military during the period 2013-2020. Specifically, the U.S. military in that time lost 224 personnel and 186 aircraft, resulting in a cumulative cost estimated at around $11.6 billion (NCMAS, 2020).
Table 1 indicates accidents occurred in the US military i.e. the Air Force, Marines, Navy, and Aviation Army between the fiscal years 2013 and 2018, per accident class, excluding class D and class E as being less severe. Reportedly, the costs arising from these accidents shaped an annual average cost of around $1.5 billion dollars (solely originating from accidents categorized as A, B, and C). Additionally, the United States experienced annual personnel losses ranging from 20 to 40 individuals, solely related to aviation accidents. By drawing parallels between the U.S. and the Hellenic Air Force (HAF), it is underlined that similar figures are being exhibited. Even though a direct comparison is infeasible due to confidentiality issues concerning the HAF, it is evident that Class A mishaps in the HAF are reoccurring.
Indeed, in 2023 only, HAF lost a fully equipped F-4 Phantom fighter jet during a training exercise over the Ionian Sea, a firefighting CL-215 aircraft during a wildfire mitigation mission in the broader area of Evia, in central Greece and a T-2 Buckeye aircraft during a training mission over Kalamata airfield (Lawson & Chopra, 2023; Noeth, 2023; Tugwell, 2023). Moreover, HAF also lost a fully equipped F-16 fighter jet over the Aegean Sea in early 2024, fortunately without any human casualties (Orban, 2024). Apart from the direct cost associated with the cost of those fully operating aircraft, resulting in significant financial losses of millions of dollars, the HAF was also burdened with the loss of five invaluable officers. Putting aside the quality of those heroic pilots, which can never be replaced, it is underlined that training an Air Force cadet to become a fully operational fighter pilot takes approximately 2-5$ million (NCMAS, 2020).
Moreover, by considering that the Hellenic Ministry of Defense received an annual budget of 5.7€ billion in 2023 (Hellenic Ministry of Economy and Finance, 2023), it is reasonable to assume that just the aforementioned accidents alone, can have a direct impact on the Greek defense costs. Nonetheless, confidentiality protocols of the HAF do not allow for an explicit reference to the cost so as to facilitate a comparison between Greece and the US. Conversely, by taking into account that the annual U.S. Defense budget is shaped usually around 700$ billion (US Department of Defence, 2023), it turns out that at least 0.21% of this budget is consumed by aviation accident-related costs. Thus, for both countries, it is evident that military aviation accidents are contributing to a significant cost in terms of finance, apart from the pilots' lives which are of course, invaluable.
Commercial Aviation
Mishaps in commercial aviation are classified into accidents, serious incidents and incidents (ICAO, 2009a). Put simply, a mishap in which at least one individual is seriously injured, or the aircraft sustains damage, is characterized as an accident. Undoubtfully, accident rates in commercial aviation, especially those exhibited in passenger transportation, are lower than ever before.
It is also acknowledged that the probability of an accident to occur increases with the air traffic volume, which was significantly disrupted as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and its associated implications (Sun et al., 2021). According to ICAO, in 2022 global passenger traffic showed a consistent rise, reaching 3.2 billion transported passengers worldwide. This marked a substantial increase from the 2.3 billion passengers recorded in 2021. However, it's important to note that this figure still falls short of the pre-pandemic (2019) levels by 29%, when 4.5 billion passengers transported globally.
The annual accident reports reveal an increase in both the overall number of accidents and the worldwide accident rate in 2022. In the transition from 2021 to 2022, there was a notable 33.3% surge in the total number of reported accidents. It's important to consider that this increase occurred in a year when global passenger traffic and the number of flight departures were on the rise as pandemic-related restrictions were lifted, and the aviation industry began its recovery. In 2022, the global accident rate stood at 2.05 accidents per million departures (Figure 2), representing a 6.3% increase from the 2021 rate of 1.93 accidents per million departures. It's worth noting that this increase in the accident rate occurred simultaneously with a roughly 25% growth in the number of flight departures during the same period.
Concerning the cost originating from commercial aviation accidents, it is underlined that this can be subjective to an array of factors such as the aircraft type, location of crash site, number of deaths etc. Nonetheless, a commendable attempt to address this issue was made by Cavka & Cokorilo in 2012. Their study focused on one of the best-selling commercial transport aircraft in the world, namely, the Airbus 320 series. To that end, they estimated that for a minor accident of this particular type of aircraft, without any deaths or injuries, the estimated direct cost would be shaped around 11$ million, where in case of a catastrophic accident with 121 casualties, the same type of cost can escalate to 213.17$ million. Remarkably, in the former case, indirect costs were estimated around 1.02$ million, where in the latter case, the indirect cost skyrockets to 266,47$ million. Table 3 illustrates the partial cost estimations that Cavka & Cokorilo took into account. It is underlined that reported values are solely estimations and real cost can vary significantly as mentioned above.
Ironically, the number of casualties that Cavka & Cokorilo hypothesized in their catastrophic scenario i.e. 121, coincided with the number of Helios Airways (Flight 522) victims, which shocked the Greek aviation community in 2005 despite the improving accident rates in commercial aviation. That said, in August 14 of 2005, a fully loaded Boeing 737 crashed at the north suburbs of Athens after total incapacitation of the flight crew and passengers due to a pressurization issue of the aircraft. It was later found that the cabin pressurization switch was inadvertently left in the manual position after a regular inspection conducted by the airline maintainers (AAIASB, 2006). It is also acknowledged that Helios Flight 522 was marked in Hellenic aviation history as the most horrible air accident ever to occur. With regard to cost, it is underlined that Helios Airways went bankrupt shortly after the accident manifestation, despite specific strategies followed to mitigate reputation consequences such as, changing brand name into Ajet, etc. (Luke, 2023).
General Aviation
According to ICAO, general aviation encompasses all civil aviation activities that do not fall under the categories of scheduled air services or non-scheduled air transport operations for which payment or hire is involved (ICAO, 2009b). For statistical purposes established by the ICAO, general aviation activities are categorized into instructional flying, business flying, recreational flying, aerial work, and other flying (ICAO, 2009b). While general aviation flights are subject to the oversight of the same authorities responsible for commercial and military aviation, the absence of a systematic approach to safety, apparently creates room for accidents (Pounian et al., 2023).
Indeed, only in 2022, the EASA-member states recorded 31 fatal and 210 non-fatal accidents (Figure 3), whilst the respective commercial levels included only one fatal accident and less than 20 non-fatal (EASA, 2023). Furthermore, it is underscored that general aviation accidents accounted for 83% of the total civil aircraft accidents amongst the EASA-member states (EASA, 2022).
Similar accident indices are exhibited in the US where general aviation accidents account for more than 82% of all air transport-related accidents and air transport-related fatalities (Bazargan & Guzhva, 2011). Furthermore, according to Sobieralski, in the early 2010s, general aviation accidents were 50% more frequent than commercial aviation accidents in the US. During that decade, the typical accident rate was approximately 7 accidents per 100,000 flight hours. This trend resulted in over 10,000 fatalities, 5,000 serious injuries and 7,000 minor injuries in the timespan between 1994 and 2011. Additionally, the annual accident cost related to general aviation was estimated between 1.64$ and 4.64$ billion (Sobieralski, 2013). As a reference, it is mentioned that the annual accident cost of the US military aviation fluctuates around 1.5$ billion also (NCMAS, 2020). Nevertheless, given that the military is operating in adverse, stressful and occasionally hostile conditions, it is apparent that the cost associated with general aviation accidents 1s huge. Currently (2023), in the US, approximately 5.5 accidents per 100,000 flight hours occur during general aviation flights (Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 2023), which shows that the progress is by no means equivalent to that of the commercial aviation.
Concerning Greece, although general aviation accident rates were not officially available, the frequency of this kind of accidents is still a problem. Indeed, only in September of 2023 a single-engine light aircraft crashed shortly after take-off in the vicinity of a small airport 50 miles north of Athens (BNN, 2023) and a A109 helicopter had the same ending in the territory of Evia, approximately 60 miles north east of Athens (Kathimerini, 2023). The pilots in both cases were killed.
Conclusion
Accident-related costs still pose an important threat to aviation organizations worldwide. Reasonably, the avoidance of such mishaps should be a top priority for any safety department. Direct costs usually constitute the lion's share when it comes to minor accidents. Conversely, major accidents come with numerous indirect costs, the foremost among them being harm to the company's reputation. This damage may exceed twice the direct costs incurred. Although the military do not face reputation challenges, the damage from accidents can be irreversible due to the lack of insurance.
Concerning the accident rates, in the European and US territory, general aviation accidents pose a significant cause for concern. Moreover, the US military aviation accident-related cost is admittedly high and specific strategies are reportedly taken by the US Department of Defense in order to mitigate the consequences of the reported mishaps. On the other hand, the progress on commercial aviation is remarkable, albeit with a considerable margin for improvement.
Regarding the Greek airspace, fatal accidents occur regularly in military and general aviation. Expectedly, confidentiality issues do not allow for an integrated comparison between national and international aviation accidents cost. On the other hand, the Hellenic commercial aviation has not been involved in any fatal accident during the last two decades. Again, as the aviation companies hold information related to incidents confidential, it cannot be guaranteed whether the absence of fatal accidents coincides with absence of safety incidents too.
Future Research Implications
Despite the undoubtful progress of aviation safety, accidents are still a considerable cause of financial concern to companies and military organizations worldwide. The literature provides significant insights on effective ways to reduce the accident rates further, such as the maximization of automation efficiency (Mengtao et al., 2023), the introduction of Single Pilot Operations (Kioulepoglou & Makris, 2023) or No Pilot Operations (Vance et al., 2019), the augmented supervisory through ground operators (Koltz et al., 2015) and the use of Artificial Intelligence in the cockpit (Kabashkin et al., 2023). Thus, it is envisaged that additional research on these fields may reduce the accident rates even further.
Moreover, concerning the aviation sector in Greece, it was also apparent that certain strategies to minimize accident rates may have been overlooked. For example, a significant tool in reducing accidents is the organizational learning process where pilots learn from other pilots' mistakes in order not to repeat those (O'Leary & Chappell, 1996). Nonetheless, for an organizational learning system to be effective e.g. a reporting scheme, it is imperative that employees are self-disciplined enough to report mistakes and errors that occur over time willingly. That said, not a single study was found in Greece to evaluate the reporting culture of Greek pilots; thus, the effectiveness of organizational learning among the Greek aviation organizations remains an unchartered territory. Similar research gaps were also evident such as, Greek pilots' fatigue challenges, the COVID-19 impact on Greek pilots' performance, etc. It is envisaged that further research will facilitate a substantial decrease of accident rates in Greece, especially in the military and general aviation sector where the problem seems to be more evident.
(·) Acknowledgements: For useful constructive comments and suggestions, we are grateful to the anonymous reviewers; all remaining errors are ours.
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