Sea spray effects on typhoon prediction in the Yellow and East China Seas: case studies using a coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave model for Lingling (2019) and Maysak (2020)

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of sea spray parameterization on typhoon prediction in the Yellow and East China Seas (YECS) region. Using an air-sea-wave coupled model, we evaluate changes due to sea spray effects in the simulated intensity and structure of Typhoons Lingling (2019) and Maysak (2020). Enabling sea spray effect enhances surface turbulent heat fluxes considerably around the typhoon centers (74% increase for Lingling, 92% for Maysak), leading to a better representation of typhoon intensification phases. Analysis of thermodynamic processes reveals that sea spray-induced warming emerges before rapid intensification, with enhanced temperature and moisture profiles throughout the troposphere supporting stronger secondary circulation. As a result, key aspects of typhoon prediction exhibit significant improvements: root-mean-squared errors decreased by 63% in minimum central pressure and 60% for maximum wind speed in the case of Maysak. The results demonstrate that sea spray effects are strongly modulated by sub-surface ocean conditions, with a greater surface heat flux enhancement for Maysak that moved along warmer Kuroshio and Tsushima currents than for Lingling which passed over Yellow Sea Bottom Cold Water. Our findings demonstrate the significant potential to improve typhoon predictions in the YECS region by incorporating sea spray effects.