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Abstract
We adapt the Covasim agent-based model for predicting new COVID-19 cases by tuning the transmissibility rate with information on the impact of the most common non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) obtained through machine learning models. Such impact has been estimated thanks to the information on applying pools of NPIs worldwide from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker.
This approach permits the simulation of a whole country or a smaller region, providing information about asymptomatic, recovery, severe, and critical new cases and enabling governments and authorities to set NPIs plans to cope with the pandemic.
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Details
1 Universidad APEC. Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic; Instituto Universitario de Matemática Pura y Aplicada. Universitat Politècnica de València, Spain
2 Instituto Universitario de Matemática Pura y Aplicada. Universitat Politècnica de València, Spain; GRID - Grupo de Investigación en Ciencia de Datos. Valencian International University - VIU, Spain
3 Instituto Universitario de Matemática Pura y Aplicada. Universitat Politècnica de València, Spain
4 Universidad APEC. Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic