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Late in his career geographer, Arnon Soffer, was hardly known outside academia, until he conceived the idea that may reshape Israel's history. ONE ON ONE
'I thought I'd never hear myself say this," says Haifa University geographer Arnon Soffer, without a trace of self-doubt, "but Israel will have to relinquish the Jordan Valley."
Soffer, a geostrategist widely seen as the originator of Ariel Sharon's separation plan, has never been one to pull proverbial punches. A prominent figure in the public debate on disengagement, Soffer has been a leading purveyor of apocalyptic predictions about Israel's demographic problem vis-a-vis the Arabs for more than three decades.
At 68, his stature and super-confident demeanor make him seem almost too large for his tiny office, which, he says, has become the venue for meetings with everyone from military brass to Knesset members.
"Many people said I was crazy," says Soffer, a glint of self- satisfaction in his eye. "But since then, they have come to realize I was right."
As the cabinet prepares to vote on the latest proposal next week, Soffer discussed with us the rationale behind the plan he conceived, the prospects for its execution, and challenges ahead of Israel in what he believes is an inherently hostile neighborhood.
Was the disengagement idea yours?
The day he was elected prime minister Sharon asked me to bring him a [disengagement] map I published in 2001. I have been a leading figure on this issue for years.
When did he first summon you?
We had met throughout the years many times. He knows me well, and requested the meeting.
You're considered a demographic prophet of doom. How did that happen?
In 1970, as a young geographer, I decided to focus on military geography - or geopolitics. Then, while working on the national masterplan for the north, I became obsessed with the problem of the Israeli Arabs that I saw developing in the Galilee. In retrospect, this had an effect on where the Jewish hilltop communities were later established. Many people said I was crazy. But since then, they have come to realize I was right.
In 1975, I began researching the problem more seriously. That's when I grasped that the issue is about demography. I began taking members...