Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics and Prediction of Habitat Quality Changes in the Poyang Lake Region, China

Abstract

The terrestrial spatial patterns were affected by human activities, primarily on regional land use (LU) changes, with habitat quality (HQ) serving as a prerequisite for achieving regional sustainable development. Assessing and predicting the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of regional LU changes and HQ is critical for formulating regional LU strategies and enhancing ecosystem service functions. Using the Poyang Lake Region as our research object, this research employs LU data and utilizes the ‘InVEST’ model and hot-spot analysis to quantitatively evaluate the spatiotemporal changes in HQ during 2000–2020. The PLUS model is then applied to predict LU and HQ trends from 2020 to 2050. The findings are as follows: (1). From 2000 to 2020, the areas of forestland, shrubland, sparse woodland, paddy fields, and dryland in the Poyang Lake Region showed a decreasing trend, with reductions mainly occurring in urban expansion zones such as Nanchang City and largely converted into urban construction land. (2). Since 2000, HQ in the Poyang Lake Region has shown a slight retrogressive evolution, with significant spatial heterogeneity. HQ spatially exhibits a pattern of improvement radiating outward from major cities. (3). Predictions for 2030 to 2050 indicate that HQ in the Poyang Lake Region will continue to decline, with the most significant downward trends occurring in urban built-up areas and their peripheries. The spatiotemporal characteristics reveal an expansion ring around Poyang Lake and an east–west urban expansion corridor linking Pingxiang, Yichun, Xinyu, Nanchang, Fuzhou, Yingtan, and Shangrao. This study provided a research basis for LU direction and urban planning policies in the Poyang Lake Region and its surrounding areas, while also contributing to the construction of agrarian security patterns and the enhancement of ecosystem service levels in the region.