Modeling the effects of land use change on agricultural carrying capacity and food security

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Food security is a global issue outlined in the sustainable development goals. Challenges concerning food are linked to the accessibility of food supplies. As the population continues to rise, the amount of agricultural land available for food production is on the decline. Changing agricultural land to built-up land causes problems in food security and the land's carrying capacity. The objective of this study is to identify shifts in land use and to utilize simulation models to anticipate future land use changes within the Special Region of Yogyakarta, along with assessing their implications for the region's agricultural land carrying capacity and food security. Predictions of spatial land changes will reveal changes in land function, carrying capacity and food security between regions. METHODS: Land changes were studied using remote sensing imagery-based mapping methods and spatial simulations using the cellular automata approach. The land change map illustrates the spatial distribution of agricultural land that has changed.Spatial simulation was carried out using the cellular automata algorithm, through computers and spatial data processing software. To determine how well rice fields can satisfy the food demands of the population, the carrying capacity of agricultural land is analyzed. This process entails a comparison between the available land and the land required for agricultural purposes. Meanwhile, the calculation of food security uses a methodology adopted from the food security and vulnerability atlas method. FINDINGS: Prediction results showed that the special region of Yogyakarta's built-up land area will expand between 2026 and 2034. The land carrying capacity will decline with the expansion of the built-up area, which will primarily be converted from agricultural land. While the carrying capacity of agricultural land has risen, food security has unfortunately declined. To bolster sustainable food security, it is essential to protect agricultural land and adopt modern agricultural innovations that can further increase its carrying capacity. The carrying capacity of the agricultural land in the special region of Yogyakarta between 2018 and 2022 ranged from 0.0026 to 1.034. In 2018, most areas in this region had high food security. Yogyakarta City was the only city in 2018 with the lowest food security at 66.34. In 2022, Kulon Progo Regency and Sleman Regency had a lower food security level than the previous year. CONCLUSION: This study explores land use change, land carrying capacity, and food security in the Special Region of Yogyakarta, Indonesia. Due to population expansion and various development projects, land conversion is a necessary process, and the transition of agricultural land into urban environments jeopardizes food sources. The study uses food security and vulnarebility atlas mapping indicators, agricultural land carrying capacity, and food security to explain the complex interactions. Cellular automata predicts land use changes, showing the highest land use change in 2034 directly impacts land carrying capacity and food security. To achieve food security and sustainable agricultural development, proactive measures are crucial. The insights gained from this research can serve as a foundation for future investigations and policy actions that seek to bolster food security and support sustainable agricultural practices.