Predicting symptomatic kidney stones using machine learning algorithms: insights from the Fasa adults cohort study (FACS)

Abstract

Objectives

To enhance the identification of individuals at risk of developing clinically significant kidney stones.

Methods

In this study, data from the Fasa Adults Cohort Study were analyzed to explore factors linked to symptomatic and clinically significant kidney stone disease. After cleaning, 10,128 participants with 103 variables were studied. One outcome variable (presence of symptomatic kidney stones) and 102 predictor variables from surveys and tests were assessed. Five Machine learning (ML) algorithms (SVM, RF, KNN, GBM, XGB) were applied to examine kidney stone factors, with performance comparisons made. Data balancing was done using SMOTE, and metrics like accuracy, precision, sensitivity, specificity, F1 score, and AUC were evaluated for each algorithm.

Results

The XGB model outperformed others with AUC of 0.60, while RF, GBM, SVC, and KNN had AUC values of 0.58, 0.57, 0.54, and 0.52. RF, GBM, and XGB showed good accuracy at 0.81, 0.81, and 0.77. Top predictors for kidney stones were serum creatinine, salt intake, hospitalization history, sleep duration, and BUN levels.

Conclusions

ML models show promise in evaluating an individual’s risk of developing painful kidney stones and recommending early lifestyle changes to reduce this risk. Further research can enhance predictive accuracy and tailor interventions for better prevention/management.