The Relationship of Climate Change and Malaria Incidence in the Gambella Region, Ethiopia

Abstract

Background: This study investigates the relationship between climate variables and malaria incidence in Ethiopia’s Gambella region, a hotspot for malaria transmission. Methods: Utilizing 30 years of satellite-derived climate data and 10 years of malaria incidence records from the Ethiopian Public Health Institute, this research analyzed trends and correlations. Climate variables, including rainfall, temperature, and relative humidity, were extracted using GPS data and global climate models from NASA. Autoregressive modeling was employed to assess the impact of these variables on malaria incidence at different time lags (lag 0, 1, and 2). Results: The analysis revealed significant upward trends in rainfall, relative humidity, and temperature over the 30-year period, coinciding with a rise in malaria cases over the past decade. Rainfall exhibited delayed effects on malaria incidence, while relative humidity demonstrated both immediate and persistent impacts. Relative humidity at lag 0 had the strongest influence (IRR = 1.002, 95% CI: 1.001–1.003), whereas temperature showed minimal effects (IRR = 1.000, 95% CI: 1.000–1.001). Conclusions: These findings underscore the critical role of climate variables in driving malaria transmission and highlight the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies, early warning systems, and strengthened health infrastructure. Leveraging climate data for predictive modeling and expanding targeted interventions, such as insecticide-treated nets (ITNs), is essential to mitigate climate-driven malaria risks and protect vulnerable communities in Gambella and similar regions