Headnote
ABSTRACT
Objective: The objective of this study is to analyze how financial factors and risk perception influence the willingness of SMEs in the coffee sector in Ensenada, Mexico, to adopt the franchise model as an expansion strategy, despite its potential to guarantee long-term profitability.
Theoretical Framework: The study is based on economic theories applied to entrepreneurship, risk perception, and business growth strategies. A systematic review of academic literature on franchise models, profitability, barriers to expansion, and financial sustainability in SMEs was conducted. The findings are contextualized within the current franchise market landscape and the structural conditions faced by small businesses.
Method: A quantitative, exploratory, and cross-sectional research design was applied. A structured questionnaire with a five-point Likert scale was administered to 30 entrepreneurs in the coffee sector in Ensenada. The instrument allowed for the assessment of perceptions on three key dimensions: profitability, risk perception, and barriers to adopting the franchise model. The analysis was complemented by a situational assessment of the local economic environment.
Results and Discussion: The results show that, while entrepreneurs recognize benefits such as brand strengthening and sustained income that the franchise model can provide, significant obstacles persist, such as high initial costs, uncertainty regarding return on investment, and a lack of strategic advice. These factors limit its effective implementation, despite the expressed interest in growth and expansion.
Implications: This study reveals significant implications for public policymakers, business development agencies, and consultants. Management training, financial planning, and technical support emerge as key elements to foster the adoption of this model in emerging markets. Its implementation could generate positive impacts on economic stability, employment, and regional development.
Originality/Value: The research adds value by identifying the specific perceptions of coffee sector entrepreneurs about the franchise model, in a context that has been underexplored in the academic literature. Contributes to the design of strategies to foster sustainable business growth models, promoting a favorable ecosystem for structured entrepreneurship and SME expansion.
Keywords: Consistent Profitability, Franchising, Business Expansion, Financial Barriers, Risk Perception.
RESUMO
Mirar: O objetivo deste estudo é analisar como fatores financeiros e percepção de risco influenciam a disposição das PMEs do setor de café em Ensenada, México, de adotar o modelo de franquia como estratégia de expansão, apesar de seu potencial para garantir lucratividade a longo prazo.
Referencial teórico: O estudo é baseado em teorias econômicas aplicadas ao empreendedorismo, percepção de risco e estratégias de crescimento empresarial. Foi realizada uma revisão sistemática da literatura acadêmica sobre modelos de franquia, lucratividade, barreiras à expansão e sustentabilidade financeira em PMEs. As descobertas são contextualizadas no cenário atual do mercado de franquias e nas condições estruturais enfrentadas pelas pequenas empresas.
Método: Foi utilizado um delineamento de pesquisa quantitativo, exploratório e transversal. Um questionário estruturado com uma escala Likert de cinco pontos foi aplicado a 30 empreendedores cafeicultores em Ensenada. O instrumento permitiu avaliar percepções em três dimensões principais: lucratividade, percepção de risco e barreiras à adoção do modelo de franquia. A análise foi complementada por um diagnóstico situacional do ambiente econômico local.
Resultados e discussão: Os resultados mostram que, embora os empreendedores reconheçam benefícios como fortalecimento da marca e renda sustentada que o modelo de franquia pode proporcionar, obstáculos significativos persistem, como altos custos iniciais, incerteza sobre o retorno do investimento e falta de consultoria estratégica. Esses fatores limitam sua implementação efetiva, apesar do interesse expresso em crescimento e expansão.
Implicações: Este estudo revela implicações significativas para formuladores de políticas públicas, agências de desenvolvimento de negócios e consultores. Treinamento de gestão, planejamento financeiro e suporte técnico surgem como elementos-chave para promover a adoção desse modelo em mercados emergentes. Sua implementação poderá gerar impactos positivos na estabilidade econômica, no emprego e no desenvolvimento regional.
Originalidade/Valor: A pesquisa agrega valor ao identificar as percepções específicas de empreendedores da indústria do café em relação ao modelo de franquia, em um contexto pouco explorado na literatura acadêmica. Contribui para a concepção de estratégias que fomentem modelos de crescimento empresarial sustentáveis, promovendo um ecossistema favorável ao empreendedorismo estruturado e à expansão das PMEs.
Palavras-chave: Rentabilidade Constante, Franquia, Expansão de Negócios, Barreiras Financeiras, Percepção de Risco.
RESUMEN
Objetivo: El objetivo de este estudio es analizar cómo los factores financieros y la percepción del riesgo influyen en la disposicion de las PyMEs del sector cafetero en Ensenada, México, a adoptar el modelo de franquicia como una estrategia de expansión, a pesar de su potencial para garantizar la rentabilidad a largo plazo.
Marco teórico: El estudio se fundamenta en teorias económicas aplicadas al emprendimiento, percepción del riesgo y estrategias de crecimiento empresarial. Se realizó una revisión sistemática de literatura académica sobre modelos de franquicia, rentabilidad, barreras de expansion y sostenibilidad financiera en PyMEs. Se contextualizan los hallazgos dentro del panorama actual del mercado de franquicias y las condiciones estructurales que enfrentan las pequeñas empresas.
Método: Se aplicó un diseño de investigación cuantitativo, exploratorio y transversal. Se utilizó un cuestionario estructurado con escala Likert de cinco puntos, aplicado a 30 empresarios del sector cafetero en Ensenada. El instrumento permitió evaluar las percepciones sobre tres dimensiones clave: rentabilidad, percepción del riesgo y barreras para adoptar el modelo de franquicia. El análisis se complementó con un diagnóstico situacional del entorno económico local.
Resultados y discusión: Los resultados evidencian que, si bien los empresarios reconocen beneficios como el fortalecimiento de marca y los ingresos sostenidos que puede brindar el modelo de franquicia, persisten obstáculos importantes como los altos costos iniciales, la incertidumbre en el retorno de inversión y la carencia de asesoramiento estratégico. Estos factores limitan su implementación efectiva, a pesar del interés manifiesto en crecer y expandirse.
Implicaciones: Este estudio revela implicaciones significativas para los responsables de políticas públicas, organismos de desarrollo empresarial y consultores. La formación gerencial, la planificación financiera y el acompañamiento técnico emergen como elementos clave para fomentar la adopción de este modelo en mercados emergentes. Su implementación podria generar impactos positivos en la estabilidad económica, empleo y desarrollo regional.
Originalidad/Valor: La investigación aporta valor al identificar las percepciones específicas de empresarios del sector cafetero sobre el modelo de franquicia, en un contexto poco explorado en la literatura académica. Contribuye al diseño de estrategias para fomentar modelos sostenibles de crecimiento empresarial, promoviendo un ecosistema favorable para el emprendimiento estructurado y la expansión de las PyMEs.
Palabras clave: Rentabilidad Constante, Franquicias, Expansión Empresarial, Barreras Financieras, Percepción de Riesgo.
1 INTRODUCTION
This research analyzes the franchise business model in the coffee shop sector in Ensenada, Baja California, with a particular focus on sustained profitability as a key factor for its viability. It is based on the premise that franchising constitutes a reliable alternative for the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) within this industry, provided that such profitability can be sustained over time.
The overall objective of this study is to demonstrate that the franchise business model represents a viable and profitable solution for the growth of SMEs in the coffee sector in Ensenada, Baja California.
The specific objectives are as follows:
1. Demonstrate that franchising is a reliable, long-term business opportunity for both the franchisor and the franchisee.
2. Identify that the franchise model allows SMEs in the coffee sector to achieve consistent profitability.
3. Analyze the main reasons why SMEs with franchising potential decide not to implement this business model.
Exploring the potential of the coffee sector in Ensenada through this research seeks to enable local companies with permanence, prestige, and quality to open branches that multiply their profits, increasing consumption and leveraging current technologies. In this sense, franchising is presented as a type of cooperation agreement that facilitates business growth, both geographically and vertically, by allowing franchisees to operate under a proven and integrated business concept (Alvarez Castaño, 2007). Following this approach, companies in the coffee sector can opt for a hybrid model that combines their own and franchised establishments, ensuring the standardization of their processes and sustainable expansion without compromising quality or brand identity. If these companies are convinced they can generate greater revenue, they will have a sufficient base to extend and attract third parties to their business model, multiplying their success. The advantage of a company that has already been successful in a regional market in Ensenada gives it greater possibilities for expansion through the franchise concept. The franchise business model must be simple, teachable, and easy to replicate, but at the same time, it must have certain barriers that make it difficult for competitors to imitate it (Sibaja, 2019). Based on the analysis presented in the background and methodological framework, we will seek to demonstrate the robustness and versatility of SME behavior as a fundamental basis for understanding and predicting their performance in different scenarios. In this context, we examine the application of the franchise model as a viable strategy for SMEs, particularly in the coffee sector in Ensenada. This business model is presented as a strategic opportunity due to its potential to generate constant and sustained profitability over time. However, its implementation requires compliance with certain legal provisions and depends on several key factors that directly impact its financial and operational viability.
2 BACKGROUND
The globalized and competitive environment in which small businesses operate today requires sustainable strategies to strengthen and expand local businesses. The franchise system proves to be an attractive growth model for SMEs. This model has had a significant presence today and throughout the world as a source of self-employment, starting a proven successful business and a beneficial system not only for the parties involved, the franchisor and the franchisor, but also as an economic activator that creates new consumer habits. Franchising is primarily regulated by the Industrial Property Law (2018), which in its Article 142 defines it as follows: A franchise exists when, with the license to use a trademark, technical knowledge is transferred or technical assistance is provided, so that the person to whom it is granted can produce or sell goods or provide services in a uniform manner and with the operational, commercial, and administrative methods established by the trademark owner, tending to maintain the quality, prestige, and image of the products or services that it distinguishes. Anyone granting a franchise must provide the intended franchisee, prior to the execution of the respective agreement, with information regarding the status of their business, in accordance with the terms established by the regulations of this Law (p. 40). On the one hand, the franchisor is the owner of the operating system of a successful business, which includes a brand, trade name, technology, or knowledge necessary for the operation of a product, the provision of a service, and a process, or all of these together. The franchisee is the person who acquires the operating system and receives the knowledge that the franchisor entrusts to provide the franchised unit with the quality standards of the product or service offered by the master franchise. xv Franchising represents one of the most profitable and effective alternatives for covering new markets, but it is also, today, an excellent way of doing business, whether investing in one or adopting it as a growth strategy for one's own company.
A franchise is a system of associated trade between financially and legally independent companies, but bound by a contract under which one of them (the franchisor) grants the other or others (franchisees), in exchange for financial compensation, the right to exploit a brand and/or a commercial formula materialized in distinctive signs, ensuring the technical assistance and regular services necessary to facilitate such exploitation (BBVA, sf).
Small and medium-sized businesses should know their business options and in Based on this, they must make strategic decisions that allow them to increase profits and growth. Companies with the possibility of adopting the franchise model must reflect that the development of these new business models requires new knowledge and adaptation to change. Changes that are increasingly rapid, where the internet, social networks, and commercial platforms play a very important role in the market, a knowledgeable, demanding public, expecting new products and services that offer them satisfaction and quality. Without leaving aside the new generations.
The evolution of franchises has deep roots dating back to the Middle Ages, when European kingdoms granted fiscal and military rights to certain local authorities. In France, the term "franchise" arose from the word franc (free), referring to concessions granted to cities for commercial activities, thus marking a primitive form of collaborative organization (Torres, 2022). During the 18th and 19th centuries, this model spread to England as a strategy to sustain the monarchy and expand international markets through regional marketing agreements (CEA, 2016).
Already in the 19th century, the United States formalized the modern concept of franchising with the Singer company, which replaced its salespeople with dealers. It later replicated the model in sectors such as the automotive and soft drink industries, most notably General Motors and Coca-Cola (Canudas, 2013; Mauro & Saporosi, 1993). This historical process consolidated franchising as a commercial expansion model with low risk and high profitability potential. Franchising as a business format began to proliferate in the United States in the 1950s, and its success was attributed to the franchisors' ability to control quality and consistency.
In Mexico, franchises began to gain ground at the beginning of the 20th century, with the automotive sector being particularly prominent with the opening of the first dealership in 1901. Beginning in the 1980s, with the arrival of brands such as McDonald's and KFC, their expansion intensified, leading to the creation of the Mexican Franchise Association (AMF) in 1989 to strengthen the model in the country. Currently, franchises are considered a safe investment, with brands such as Dormimundo, Farmacias del Ahorro, and 7-Eleven among the most profitable, and with affordable entry-level models starting at $25,000 pesos (Ruiz, 2022).
Franchising is currently a popular business model, adaptable to almost all sectors and with high potential for success, combining investment with the support of an established brand. This format is based on the relationship between the franchisor, who grants the franchisee the use of the brand and business structure, and the franchisee, who invests and pays fees for rights and services, allowing for structured expansion with strategic support (Ketchen, Short & Combs, 2011).
Franchising means leading the company on the path to success and consolidation in the market (Pérez Calderón, 2022). Franchise businesses are among the fastest developing in the world at the national and local levels (Vinay, 2000;64).
Today, franchising represents a solid and established business model, present in almost every economic sector. Its success lies in the combination of private investment with the operational and commercial support of an established brand, which allows franchisees to minimize risks when launching their business (Ketchen, Short & Combs, 2011). The key to this model lies in the standardization of processes, technical assistance, and the added value it offers to consumers, as well as personalized service backed by the franchisor's knowledge (El Economista, 2020).
For a franchise to be profitable and sustainable, it must meet certain strategic conditions: belong to a reliable sector, conduct pilot tests before scaling up, understand the competition, implement a promotional strategy, and comply with intellectual property regulations, thus ensuring its operational and legal viability (Larios, 2022). This approach allows not only to replicate the business model, but also to protect and refine it in each new unit.
In Mexico, the franchise sector has demonstrated a strong capacity for adaptation and growth, even in adverse contexts such as the pandemic. In 2022, approximately 1,550 brands were operating in the country, 83% of which are national. These franchises comprise more than 90,000 units, generate more than one million direct jobs, and contribute approximately 5% to the national GDP. Within this ecosystem, 32% corresponds to the food and beverage sector, demonstrating its dynamism and market preference (Meza, 2022).
In addition to their economic impact, franchises are highly resilient to local and global crises, thanks to their proven products, guaranteed demand, ongoing training systems, consistent processes, and a structure that facilitates expansion without losing operational control (Conexiones365, 2022). These elements explain why franchises in Mexico maintain an economic success rate of over 90%, with only an 8% failure rate after a decade, consolidating their position as one of the safest forms of investment (Rodriguez, 2016).
3 SITUATION OF SMEs IN BAJA CALIFORNIA
The franchise model has shown growth with the presence of foreign proposals, with few registrations of national companies, and with the promise of foreign chains in 2017 to increase their share to 8% of their global growth by expanding to more strategic points of sale in Mexico. The growth of the franchise system nationwide, the presence of international chains, and the disappearance of local companies create the need to investigate SMEs and what they are doing to achieve sustained growth.
The growing number of businesses closing in the state of Baja California has raised alarm bells and is one of the main motivations for this research. This raises the question of why local entrepreneurs in Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico, do not consider franchising as a strategy to consolidate and expand their businesses in an increasingly globalized and competitive environment.
The franchise model has experienced significant growth in recent years, driven primarily by the entry of foreign offerings, while the participation of domestic companies remains limited. In 2017, franchises increased their share by 8% worldwide, expanding to more strategic points of sale within Mexico. This growth, led by international chains, has contributed to the gradual disappearance of local companies.
In this context, it is estimated that 80% of new businesses in the state fail during their first year of operation. Furthermore, two companies with more than 1,000 employees and another with at least 500 workers have closed. The sectors most affected by this dynamic have been commerce, services, construction, and agriculture (Zeta, 2016).
According to data from the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS), there are 37,092 businesses in Baja California that employ between one and one thousand workers. Meanwhile, the National Chamber of Commerce (CANACO) of Tijuana reported that, during the same year, 10% of small businesses in the state closed their doors.
In September 2024 alone, 834 formal businesses closed, bringing the total number of closures to 7,618 so far this year (see Table 1). Baja California ranked second on the northern border with the highest number of formal business closures (Tafoya, 2024). Between 2021 and 2024, the average number of closures per day rose to 26, reaching a total of 24,488 businesses closed during that period.
Job losses have also been significant. In March 2024, 4,611 formal jobs were reported lost, while only 103 new jobs were created. At the end of May of that year, the state had a total of 1,043,660 workers affiliated with the IMSS, of which 941,574 were permanent and 102,086 were temporary (INCOMEX, 2024; IMSS, 2023).
Small and microenterprises represent the economic livelihood of hundreds of Mexican families, but at the same time, they constitute the most vulnerable segment of the business ecosystem. This vulnerability is exacerbated by the accelerated growth of the franchise business model, which typically operates with improved administrative practices, standardized infrastructure, and resource support that generates consumer trust and preference. This situation has negatively impacted the economy of numerous households that directly depend on their SME family businesses.
In this regard, the president of the Mexican Business Coordinating Council (CCEM) warns that for every new franchised convenience store that opens, at least 35 small businesses tend to close in the short term. This phenomenon becomes even more serious when considering that SMEs generate employment for approximately 27 million people in Mexico, equivalent to 68.4% of the national workforce (Great Place to Work Mexico, 2024).
The director of the Baja California Economic Research Center (CEEBC), Luis Roberto Valero Berrospe, points out that the state faces profound instability stemming from a lack of infrastructure, high tax burdens, excessive regulations, a lack of energy guarantees, and inefficient public policies to promote economic growth. These factors, taken together, hinder the sustainable development of local businesses.
Additionally, multiple crises have affected SMEs in recent years: the pandemic, global financial instability, international armed conflicts that generate shortages of inputs and rising raw material prices, as well as increased tariffs and trade restrictions. All of this has forced many businesses to close permanently.
Among the main causes of business failure are unsustainable debt levels and intense competition from large national and international chains. These impose challenges that many SMEs cannot overcome, especially in terms of innovation, efficiency, and technological adaptation. These causes are often not thoroughly analyzed, which prevents the development of structural solutions.
One of the most common reasons for business failure in Mexico is a lack of liquidity or capital, which is responsible for the closure of 35% of SMEs (El Economista, 2023). Along these lines, De la O Cordero and Monge-Gonzalez (2019) identify various factors that trigger the closure of these types of companies: operational vulnerability, excessive bureaucracy, limited access to financing, low administrative capacity, shortage of qualified personnel, lack of managerial skills, problems arising from family structures, unfavorable geographic location, inability to generate economies of scale, lack of market information, and limited access to technologies and organizational methods. All of this forces many companies to remain small, facing high transaction costs and high bankruptcy rates.
(De la O Cordero & Monge-Gonzalez, 2019)
The article "An Analysis of the Determinants of Failure Processes in UK SMEs" (2020) by Makropoulos et al. discusses the factors that contribute to the demise of SMEs in countries such as the UK. Firm failures, highlighting the combinations of factors likely to contribute to liquidations, and identifying signs early enough to act upon them. (Emerald Publishing, 2020)
The President of the Center for Economic Studies of Baja California (CEEBC) states that the business sector complains that there are no employees, since salaries and working hours are not attractive, other factors that are attributed to the closure of companies are a weak economy, rising inflation and the growth of operating costs, for this reason they close their businesses and decide to migrate to informal employment and a new sub-informal segment such as sales on social networks like Marketplace on Facebook (Guerra, 2024), However, the lack of resources could be one of the main factors; technological, operational, economic resources, knowledge; In addition, the opening of a new business always involves risks that many times entrepreneurs are not willing to take, taking into consideration possible impacts.
According to the International Labour Organization (ILO), SMEs represent more than 90% of companies, generating a rate of 70% globally, in most countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and SMEs represent more than 50% of the gross domestic product (GDP index that reaches up to 70% according to global estimates (OTI, 2019)
In Mexico, 99.8% of establishments are micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMESs), according to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI, 2024). This business segment is the main generator of employment in the country, while strengthening the national economy, driving regional development, and contributing significantly to social well-being. Furthermore, SMEs represent a reflection of the nation's sociocultural characteristics, actively integrating into the economic dynamics and showcasing Mexico's diversity and wealth (Secretaria de Economia, 2024). Their relevance is also reflected in their economic impact, as they contribute approximately 52% of the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (ILO, 2019).
Despite their structural importance, media and government attention often focuses on large companies and recognized brands, leaving SMEs, which are, in reality, the drivers of the national economy, in the background. These small and medium-sized businesses are responsible for the majority of wealth generation and job creation in the country. It is paradoxical that, while key players in economic and social development, they continue to operate without the recognition and support that large corporations receive.
In Mexico, between May 2020 and 2023, it is estimated that 3,484,939 million establishments were born and 4,033,798 died (See table 2) of the total number of registered companies, which are classified as follows: Food Industry 30%, Commerce 25%, Services 20%, Manufacturing 15%, Construction 10% the sectors with the greatest mobility were the services and manufacturing sectors. (INEGI, 2024) (see table 3)
SMEs continue to face significant challenges in areas such as working conditions, productivity, innovation, and the level of informality in their activities. (OTI, 2019)
A relevant phenomenon that affects the entire economy of the country, labor informality in Mexico (Hernández, 2024), which refers to the total set of economic activities not regulated by the state, which includes both companies and workers, this phenomenon reached 54.3% 1n Mexico (see table 4) (Mexico, How Are We Doing? & Oxfam Mexico, 2024), negatively impacting the national economy by promoting tax evasion and contributions to social security and Infonavit, and by reducing state income from permits such as land use and operation, etc. Which allows them to give lower prices or have higher profit margins, informality affects labor rights and harms formal companies by establishing a dynamic of unfair competition, under the predator-prey analogy, highlighting inequality in competition.
4 IMPACT OF CLOSURE OF SMEs
The closure of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) has significant consequences for a country's economic and social stability, directly affecting key aspects such as innovation, employment, and regional development. These companies employ a large portion of the economically active population, so their disappearance contributes to rising unemployment rates.
In the specific case of Baja California, it is estimated that around 200,000 workers have left the labor market due to a lack of employment options that meet their economic needs. Many of them choose to migrate to other regions of the country or even abroad in search of better opportunities (Guerra, 2024). This situation can trigger broader social problems, such as increased poverty, inequality, and informality.
In addition to their role in job creation, SMEs are an important source of innovation in products, services, and processes. However, their lack of professionalization and institutionalization limits their capacity for long-term growth and sustainability. It is estimated that only 33% of these companies manage to remain active in a second generation, and barely 15% survive to the third. Furthermore, more than 50% of SMEs close their doors within the first two years of operation (Great Place to Work® Mexico, 2024).
The disappearance of these companies restricts the country's ability to compete in global markets, adapt to changes in demand, and generate added value through innovation. Therefore, strengthening and protecting SMEs is not only an economic priority, but also an essential strategy for sustainable development and social cohesion.
Despite the growing presence of foreign franchises in Mexico, local SMEs have yet to establish themselves under this model. Consistent profitability is positioned as a key factor in this decision, as many entrepreneurs perceive high financial risks and barriers to entry that hinder its adoption. In this context, this study aims to analyze how these perceptions influence SMEs" willingness to expand through franchising, as well as to identify what elements could mitigate these barriers and facilitate their incorporation into this business model.
Today, small businesses require sustainable strategies that strengthen their competitiveness and expansion. The franchise system represents an attractive alternative to achieve this, offering a proven business model that favors self-employment, process standardization, and business professionalization. This system not only benefits the franchisor and franchisee but also acts as an economic driver by introducing new consumer habits and fostering innovative practices. In a changing environment, where consumer preferences and market dynamics are constantly evolving, companies must adapt quickly to maintain their position. Therefore, it is urgent to adopt tools that optimize processes, improve efficiency, and allow for orderly expansion without losing identity or quality.
Entrepreneurs are forced to develop new products, services, and restructuring, as continuing to do what worked years ago is no longer sufficient. The need to innovate and implement changes is one of the main resistances of the entrepreneur of yesteryear. It also requires capital and time, but above all, knowledge of the environment and a broad overview of the external environment, both nationally and internationally, in order to be able to forecast and act.
It is about promoting the adoption of the franchise model, a model that from its beginnings to the present day is in a stage of growth and in this context, has allowed the strengthening of the internal market, creating new business alternatives and/or strategies to promote the development of local businesses, fulfills the social function by generating self-employment in addition to sources of employment, strengthening economic growth in the community, encouraging companies to professionalize and be competitive, thus satisfying the needs of consumers who are becoming more and more demanding.
This model involves the use of cutting-edge technologies to increase profitability and improve productivity in the management of human resources and supplies required by the license agreement.
Moving from an independent business to a franchise represents a greater economic scale. These well-known businesses, with a prestigious brand, product, service, and other attributes, are attractive to potential franchisors because they have an established clientele; consumers identify these businesses as providers of necessary products or services. The evolution of this sector in our country is one of the most dynamic in the Mexican economy.
Franchises have different classifications and subclassifications depending on the country where they are located, among the national classification according to the Mexican Franchise Association (2017) are: Entertainment, Food, Restaurants, Beauty and Health, Real Estate, Computing and IT, Construction and Decoration, Education, Training, Hotels, Opticians, Clothing Stores, Cleaning and Maintenance, Courier Services, Videos, Bars, etc. It is stated that the big difference between franchising and opening branches is that companies are financed with the capital of a third party to expand their operations (Michael and Combs, 2008), which from the beginning is a great advantage for any company seeking to do so. In addition, when a company operates solely with its own units, all responsibility for the brand falls on the owner, which implies that their successes or mistakes will determine the company's reputation in the market. This gives almost absolute control over the perception that consumers have of the brand, unlike the franchise model, where this responsibility is shared with franchisees (Fausto, 2017)
Kosova and Lafontaine (2012) emphasize the importance of multi-unit franchises in the retail and service sectors, noting that their structure allows for operational efficiencies and sustained profitability. This approach is particularly pertinent when analyzing coffee franchises in Ensenada, where process standardization and effective management contribute to consistent profitability.
Michael (2014) highlights that franchising can be an effective economic development strategy, especially in emerging countries, by providing a proven business model, organizational support, and a consolidated brand. This view aligns with the findings of this study, in which franchisees in the coffee sector in Ensenada identify these same elements as key to maintaining consistent profitability over time.
Lanchimba and Medina (2018) show that franchises represent an organizational model that contributes significantly to the economic development of countries, both through their ability to generate employment and their operational efficiency. They show that, by offering standardized structures, institutional support, and knowledge transfer, franchises allow businesses to reach the financial break-even point more quickly, which strengthens their potential to ensure constant and sustained profitability compared to independent business models.
While the literature positions franchising as a reliable business model due to its potential for consistent profitability, various studies warn that this is only achieved with solid financial management practices. Coronado-Coronado and Mora-Miranda (2024) identify that common errors such as oversizing, excessive debt, or the absence of key indicators compromise its sustainability, which reaffirms the need to establish adequate controls to maximize its benefits. The consistent profitability offered by a franchise is not automatic; rather, it requires structural conditions that many SMEs cannot achieve on their own. Although the literature shows that franchises can face profitability risks due to a lack of internal control, management indicators, or managerial training (Coronado-Coronado & Mora-Miranda, 2024), these are precisely the deficiencies that a well-structured franchise seeks to resolve. The use of KPIs ( Key Performance Indicators), as well as the systematic training offered by the franchisor, provides entrepreneurs with key tools to ensure consistent profitability, which represents a structural advantage over independent SMEs, which often lack these elements. This finding demonstrates the minimum conditions necessary for their consistent profitability to materialize.
Consistent profitability is a fundamental element in business decision-making within the franchise model. It is defined as the ability to generate stable and sustained income over time, enabling the viability and expansion of the business without compromising its financial stability (Michael & Combs, 2008). In this sense, profitability is not only a financial measure but also a confidence factor that influences entrepreneurs' willingness to adopt a franchise model.
Previous studies have identified that companies interested in franchising their businesses usually consider three fundamental dimensions to evaluate the constant profitability of the model (Alvarez Castaño, 2007; Fausto, 2017):
1. Long-term economic security: This refers to the business's ability to generate financial stability, reduce uncertainty, and consolidate its position in the market. This dimension is commonly assessed through the cost of the franchise and the length of time the company has been in operation.
2. Payback period: Refers to the estimated period in which a franchisee can recover their initial investment, an aspect that directly influences their willingness to adopt this business model.
3. Risk Prevention: This includes strategic elements such as business vision, continuous process improvement, and proactive risk management, all of which are key to ensuring the long-term sustainability of the franchise system.
Incorporating these dimensions into a structured analysis of ongoing profitability allows for a comprehensive assessment of the viability of the franchise model, taking into account both financial and strategic factors. This approach facilitates understanding how business perceptions influence the adoption of the model by SMEs, especially in sectors such as the coffee industry. The three aforementioned dimensions are operationalized in specific indicators that allow for empirical measurement of the perception of ongoing profitability. Based on this analysis, we seek to identify how these factors influence entrepreneurs' decisions to adopt a franchise expansion strategy, as well as overcome perceived economic and risk barriers.
5 DEVELOPMENT OF THE HYPOTHESIS
Based on the theoretical review carried out, three key dimensions are identified to evaluate the constant profitability of the franchise model, each with its respective indicators (see Table 5):
1. Long-term economic security, assessed through:
o Franchise cost
o Time on the market
2. Recovery time, measured by:
o Estimated time to recover the initial investment
3. Prevention, analyzed considering:
o Business vision
o Continuous improvement
o Risk management
In this context, the adoption of the franchise model by SMEs in the coffee sector is not approached as an isolated decision, but rather as the result of the interaction between these three dimensions of constant profitability (see Table 5).
General hypothesis
H1: For SMEs in the coffee sector in Ensenada, the perception of constant profitability positively influences the decision to adopt the franchise business model as a growth strategy.
Specific hypotheses (optional, if you are going to do analysis by dimension):
* H1a: The greater the perception of long-term economic security, the greater the willingness to adopt the franchise model.
* H1b: A shorter estimated payback time increases the intention to franchise.
* Hic: The presence of prevention practices (vision, continuous improvement and risk management) is positively associated with the adoption of the franchise model.
This study is based on the premise that consistent profitability-evaluated through financial and strategic factors-is a decisive factor in determining whether entrepreneurs consider the franchise model viable. These parameters are integrated into the study's methodological design, with the aim of analyzing their influence on the adoption of the model within the coffee sector in Ensenada.
Furthermore, the context in which many SMEs, despite being established in the market and even having branches, have not opted to franchise is considered. Understanding the reasons that motivate or inhibit the decision of franchisors, potential franchisees, and consumers is key to providing greater certainty to those considering this model as a growth option.
6 METHODOLOGY
Study approach and design
This study is based on a quantitative and deductive paradigm, seeking to measure, through numerical data, the perception of constant profitability in the franchise model among coffee industry entrepreneurs in Ensenada, Baja California. The design is non-experimental and cross-sectional, as data are collected at a single point in time without manipulating any variables. The approach is exploratory-descriptive, as the research is being applied for the first time to this group of entrepreneurs, allowing us to describe and analyze the dimensions that shape their perception of the viability of the franchise model.
6.1 POPULATION AND SAMPLE
The target population consists of coffee companies in Ensenada with at least five years of operation, market recognition, and a consolidated organizational structure. The sample consisted of 30 companies selected based on specific criteria: formally operational, with proven experience, and with potential or interest in expanding through the franchise model.
Data collection instrument
To measure the perception of consistent profitability, a structured questionnaire was designed using a 5-point Likert scale (1 = Strongly disagree, 5 = Strongly agree). The questionnaire assesses three main dimensions:
1. Long-term economic security
o Franchise cost
o Time on the market
2. Recovery time
o Estimated payback time
3. Prevention
o Business vision
o Continuous improvement
o Risk management
In total, the instrument consists of 11 items, distributed according to the aforementioned indicators. The questionnaire was validated, obtaining a Cronbach's alpha coefficient of 0.934, indicating high internal consistency and reliability.
Application of the instrument
The questionnaire was administered in person and online to the owners or general managers of the selected companies, who were previously informed of the study's objective and gave their consent to participate. The instrument took approximately 15 minutes per company to complete. Participants were assured that the information provided would be kept confidential and used exclusively for academic purposes.
Data analysis
The collected data were analyzed using SPSS statistical software, employing descriptive analysis, Pearson correlations, and simple linear regression tests. The objective was to identify which dimensions and indicators of sustained profitability most strongly influence entrepreneurs' willingness to adopt the franchise model. Correlations were considered statistically significant with a p-value < 0.05.
From a methodological perspective, this study is based on the quantitative paradigm, which, according to Tamayo (2003), allows for the construction of new scientific knowledge by objectively defining problems and formulating hypotheses based on the analysis of empirical data. In this regard, we sought to collect numerical information that would enable a deductive understanding of the phenomenon under study: constant profitability as a criterion for the viability of the franchise model among coffee-growing SMEs in Ensenada.
The research is exploratory in nature, having been applied for the first time to a specific group of entrepreneurs with established businesses in the regional market. It is also descriptive in nature, analyzing measurable attributes such as cost perception, payback time, and strategic indicators. Although it is not a strictly explanatory study, it does incorporate correlational analyses that allow for the identification of significant relationships between the variables considered.
Measuring instrument
The instrument used for this research consisted of a structured questionnaire composed of three main constructs: Franchise Reliability , Franchise Profitability , and Franchise Causes . Each construct was measured using items designed on a 5-point Likert scale (1 = Strongly disagree, 5 = Strongly agree).
The table presents the results of the reliability and validity analysis of the construct "Reliable Franchise", using an index of 4 items. The mean, standard deviation, and standardized loadings obtained through confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) are included. The construct shows excellent internal reliability, with a Cronbach's alpha (а) of 0.903, a composite reliability (CR) of 0.871, and an average variance extracted (AVE) of 0.641, exceeding the recommended thresholds (a > 0.70, CR > 0.70, AVE > 0.50).
The highest standardized loading corresponds to item BNF.16, with a value of 0.912, indicating that this item contributes most to the measurement of the construct. The loading on item MNF.01 was set at 1.0 to identify the model, and the other items (CCC.14 and CEF.06) have acceptable loadings, reflecting a solid factor structure (see Table 6).
The Franchise Profitability construct was measured through four items and presented excellent reliability and validity. Cronbach's alpha was 0.896, indicating high internal consistency between the items. Furthermore, the composite reliability (CR) was 0.905, exceeding the recommended threshold of 0.70 (Hair et al., 2019), and the average variance extracted (AVE) reached a value of 0.707, demonstrating adequate convergent validity (Fornell & Larcker, 1981).
The results show that the item that contributed most to the construct was TRI.10 ( Do you consider that your business has the potential for profitable growth? ) with a standardized loading of 0.917, followed by DIF.09 ( Do you identify differentiating advantages compared to your competitors? ) with 0.868. Items FIE.15 and FSF.04 also presented strong loadings (0.755 and 0.814, respectively), indicating that all indicators are significantly associated with the concept of perceived profitability of a franchise.
In terms of descriptive statistics, the means ranged between 2.00 and 3.53, reflecting a moderate-high perception of profitability, although with some dispersion (SD > 0.87), which suggests a diversity of opinions among those surveyed.
In the evaluation of the FranchiseCauses construct, which consists of four indicators (FNF.03, CVE.13, ORR.18, and RENTC), a confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was conducted using AMOS software. The results show acceptable levels of reliability and convergent validity.
The composite reliability (CR) reached a value of .770, exceeding the minimum recommended threshold of .70 (Hair et al., 2019), indicating adequate internal consistency for the construct. Likewise, the average variance extracted (AVE) was .545, also exceeding the suggested threshold of .50, supporting the convergent validity of the model (Fornell & Larcker, 1981).
The standardized loadings of the indicators were consistent with what has been reported in the literature for first-order models in exploratory studies, with the RENTC item particularly notable, which showed high saturation, reinforcing its relevance as a central component in respondents' perceptions of the causes influencing the adoption of a franchise model.
From a practical perspective, the strong association of RENTC with the construct reflects the importance attributed to profitability as a motivating factor in expansion decisions under franchise schemes, especially in contexts where entrepreneurs prioritize financial stability and return on investment as key elements for replicating their business model.
To identify the underlying structure of the items and validate the dimensionality of the instrument, an exploratory factor analysis (EFA) was performed using the maximum likelihood method with oblique rotation of the Oblimin type, assuming the possibility of correlation between factors.
The adequacy of the factor analysis was confirmed by a satisfactory KMO index and a statistically significant Bartlett's test of sphericity (see Figure 1), which supports the relevance of applying this multivariate technique.
The extracted factor solution revealed the presence of two factors with eigenvalues greater than 1, which together explained 67.54% of the total variance, an acceptable value according to the standards established in the literature (Hair et al., 2019). The correlation between factors was r = -0.210, justifying the use of an oblique rotation that allows for the interpretation of interrelated factors.
To facilitate the visualization and interpretation of the factor structure, a rotated factor loadings graph was generated (see Figure 1). In this two-dimensional graph, each item is located according to its factor loadings in the two extracted components. The spatial distribution shows how the items tend to cluster around their respective theoretical factors, supporting the instrument's internal consistency and construct validity.
To complement the convergent validity analysis and strengthen the factorial structure of the instrument, the discriminant validity between the constructs of the model was evaluated: Profitability , Risk and Barriers , Growth and Positioning and Recovery Time .
Pearson correlations between pairs of constructs were analyzed, as well as chi-square tests with their respective significance values. The results are presented in Table 7.
Although some correlations are moderate (e.g., 0.693 and 0.748), all are below 0.90, which suggests acceptable discriminant validity (Fornell & Larcker, 1981). The significances ( р <0.05) indicate that the differences between constructs are statistically significant.
The construct "Profitability" has a high correlation with "Payback Time" (0.881), but does not exceed the critical threshold of 0.90, therefore, it is not considered a problem of conceptual overlap. Discriminant validity was assessed by comparing restricted structural models in AMOS, forcing correlations between constructs to equal 1. The results showed that, in all cases, the chi-square difference was significant (p < 0.05), indicating that the constructs measure distinct concepts. This was complemented by confirmatory factor analysis, where the standardized loadings were adequate and well differentiated between factors. Therefore, the discriminant validity of the constructs used in the model is confirmed.
The proposed SEM model was estimated using the maximum likelihood method in AMOS. The results show that the Franchise Trustworthiness construct has a significant direct effect on Franchise Opportunity (В = 0.61) and on Franchise Causes (В = 0.80), indicating that greater perceptions of clarity and trust in the model influence both the perception of profitability and the reasons for adopting (or not) this business model.
Furthermore, Franchise Opportunity exerts an additional direct effect on Franchise Causes (В = 0.27), suggesting a partial mediating role. The items' factor loadings were mostly greater than 0.60, supporting the convergent validity of the constructs. However, some values greater than 1.0 suggest the possibility of collinearity between certain indicators, so further analysis of the modification indices is recommended to refine the model.
7 RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS
The descriptive results show that the response means generally range around 3, suggesting neutral or moderately positive perceptions among entrepreneurs regarding the continued profitability of the franchise model. The standard deviations, mostly between 0.6 and 1.2, indicate moderate dispersion, reflecting the coexistence of entrepreneurs with favorable perceptions and others who are more skeptical or less knowledgeable about the topic.
This widespread neutrality can be interpreted more as a lack of information or trust in the franchise model than as outright rejection. Therefore, a key opportunity is identified to promote awareness and training programs that reinforce the perception of economic security and long-term profitability associated with this business model.
One of the most relevant findings is observed in the correlation analysis, which identified a significant relationship between the cost of the franchise and the estimated payback time (r = 0.893, p < 0.01). This strong association suggests that entrepreneurs who perceive a high initial cost also anticipate a prolonged payback period, which can represent a significant psychological barrier when considering adopting the model. This result highlights the need to design more flexible and accessible financing schemes that can reduce the perception of risk and improve the perceived viability of the model.
Likewise, items related to risk perception show greater variability in responses, demonstrating the existence of different entrepreneur profiles regarding the franchise model. While some identify clear strategic advantages, others consider it an uncertain investment. This heterogeneity suggests the need to develop differentiated strategies, both in communication and business support, to address the different needs and levels of preparedness within the sector.
Another important finding is the relationship between long-term business vision and variables such as cost and time in the market. The results suggest that a solid strategic vision facilitates the willingness to undertake initial investments and expansion processes under structured schemes such as franchising. Meanwhile, the prevention dimension, associated with practices such as continuous improvement, showed significant relationships with risk management and expected return. This indicates that entrepreneurs with an orientation toward innovation and control are better prepared to operate under a successful franchise model.
These results are consistent with those proposed by Fausto (2017), who emphasizes that the perception of return on investment is one of the decisive factors in the adoption of expansion models such as franchising. Thus, the findings allow us to address specific objective 2 of the study by identifying the elements that directly influence the perception of constant profitability as a fundamental condition for assessing the viability of the franchise model in the coffee sector in Ensenada.
The results also corroborate that franchising contributes positively to a country's development level, confirming previous assumptions made by Michael (2014) and Lanchimba and Medina (2018). Specifically, these authors argue that the franchise model, by standardizing processes, reducing uncertainty, and facilitating access to management tools, can be a viable economic development strategy.
The sample analyzed in the Ensenada coffee sector supports this position, showing a widespread perception of consistent profitability, supported by standardized processes, operational support, and financial clarity. This perception is aligned with international empirical evidence; for example, Lanchimba and Medina (2018) demonstrated that franchises, by offering a proven business model and organizational support from the first day of operation, allow businesses to reach the break-even point in less time. This aspect is key to the sustainability of individual businesses and the strengthening of the local entrepreneurial ecosystem.
7.1 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY AND FUTURE LINES OF RESEARCH
This study, while significantly contributing to the understanding of the franchise model as a viable expansion strategy for SMEs in the coffee sector in Ensenada, has some limitations that should be considered when interpreting its findings. First, the sample size (30 companies) and its focus on a specific region limit the generalization of the results to other geographic contexts or productive sectors. Furthermore, focusing solely on the entrepreneur's perspective excludes analysis of other relevant actors in the franchise ecosystem, such as the franchisee and the end consumer.
Another important limitation lies in the cross-sectional nature of the methodological design, which prevents definitive causal relationships between variables from being established. While the SEM model provides significant evidence of the correlations between perceived profitability, trust, and reasons for model adoption, it does not allow us to observe how these perceptions evolve over time or in response to changes in the economic environment.
Regarding future lines of research, we suggest expanding the scope of the study by incorporating a consumer perspective on the franchise model, particularly regarding perceptions of quality, loyalty toward local brands versus franchises, and their influence on purchasing decisions. Understanding how consumer habits impact franchise performance will enrich strategic feasibility analyses for entrepreneurs. Furthermore, it would be relevant to explore the role of institutional and regulatory factors that can facilitate or inhibit the adoption of the franchise model, especially in sectors where informality or a lack of financing limit the structured growth of SMEs. Another line of research with high potential impact is evaluating the incorporation of emerging and digital technologies (such as ERP, AI, or operational management platforms) within the franchise model, as these tools can be key to optimizing profitability, reducing operational risks, and professionalizing processes-critical factors for consolidating long-term sustainable models.
8 CONCLUSIONS
Based on the findings obtained, the main hypothesis of this study 1s confirmed: for SMEs in the coffee sector in Ensenada, franchising represents a reliable business opportunity in terms of consistent profitability . Significant correlations between the variables analyzed, such as franchise cost, payback time, risk perception, and continuous improvement, support this assertion. Furthermore, it is validated that a clear business model and a strategic business vision positively influence the willingness to adopt the franchise model as an expansion strategy. This study demonstrated that the perception of consistent profitability is a determining factor for entrepreneurs in the coffee sector in Ensenada to consider the franchise model viable. Through the analysis of the evaluated constructs, it was identified that the clarity of the business model, expected economic security, investment payback time, and risk management are key elements that directly influence the willingness to franchise.
The results revealed significant correlations between the cost of franchising and payback time, as well as between risk perception and the financial viability of the model, indicating that many entrepreneurs still face psychological and practical barriers that prevent them from moving toward adopting this model. However, a segment of entrepreneurs with a strategic vision and a focus on continuous improvement was also identified, who view franchising as a real opportunity for profitable and sustained expansion.
The perception of competitive advantage, a clear model, and a long-term vision emerge as facilitators for more informed and strategic decision-making. Entrepreneurs who recognize the potential benefits of replicating their business model under a franchise scheme also value the rapid return on investment and effective response to competition, elements that contribute to consolidating a perception of stability and long-term profitability.
This study contributes to the knowledge of the factors that influence the adoption of the franchise model by local SMEs, providing empirical evidence that can be useful for designing public and private strategies for training, financing, and business support. It also highlights the need to strengthen financial and strategic education in the regional entrepreneurial ecosystem to increase understanding and confidence in structured growth models such as franchising.
Finally, it is suggested that future research delve deeper into the analysis of other economic sectors, integrating mixed methodologies that also explore consumer and franchisor perceptions, in order to comprehensively strengthen the viability of the model in the local and national context.
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