Short-term energy and meteorological impacts on Thanksgiving CO2 in Salt Lake City

Abstract

Long-term, high-frequency atmospheric CO₂ measurements at multiple sites in Salt Lake City (SLC), Utah, reveal that annual and monthly CO₂ variability aligns with a priori estimates of emissions from anthropogenic and biological sources. In this study, we investigate whether short-term fluctuations in anthropogenic emissions, as captured in the Vulcan3 dataset for the United States, can be detected in atmospheric CO₂ observations. Specifically, we focus on Thanksgiving holidays, when traffic and energy usage patterns differ from the rest of November. Onroad CO₂ emissions exhibit a double peak during weekday morning and evening rush hours but remain relatively low on weekends and Thanksgiving. Interestingly, CO₂ mole fractions during Thanksgiving were higher than the rest of November at all SLC monitoring sites, particularly from 2008 to 2013. This increase is partially attributed to elevated energy-related emissions — especially residential sources — and meteorological factors such as weak wind speeds, cold temperature, and a low planetary boundary layer height (PBLH). While CO₂ emissions and mole fraction patterns align over time, notable spatial differences exist. For instance, the near-highway site in Murray shows the highest CO₂ mole fractions despite low local emissions, suggesting pollution transport via highways and wind advection. Random Forest model-based SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis reveals that onroad emissions dominate CO₂ contributions on weekdays and weekends, while energy-related emissions play a larger role during Thanksgiving, alongside meteorological drivers such as wind speed and PBLH. Across six urban cities, CO₂ emissions display a consistent pattern: residential and commercial emissions peak during Thanksgiving with substantial year-to-year variability, while onroad emissions peak during weekdays, with minimal variability. These findings highlight that urban CO₂ variability is driven by the combined influence of emissions and meteorology, underscoring the need for integrated mitigation strategies. Additionally, multi-site measurements are essential for accurate source attribution and effective policy interventions.