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This thesis investigates the divergent trajectories of ethnic politics in postcolonial Kenya and Nigeria, interrogating why Kenya achieved notable progress in mitigating ethnic divisions after 2007, while Nigeria remains entrenched in ethno-regional competition despite democratic transitions in1999. Through a comparative historical analysis, the study argues that institutional design, resource management, and critical junctures—mediated by postcolonial agency—explain this variation.
Kenya’s 2007–2008 post-election violence, which claimed over 1,300 lives, constituted a critical juncture (Mahoney, 2000) that compelled elites to adopt the transformative 2010 Constitution. By decentralizing power to 47 counties and localizing resource governance, Kenya dismantled centralized ethnic patronage systems, fostering accountability and reducing ethnic bloc voting (Cheeseman, 2015; Boone, 2014). Judicial activism, exemplified by the 2017 Supreme Court annulment of a fraudulent election, further curtailed ethnic impunity. In contrast, Nigeria’s 1999 Constitution entrenched colonial-military legacies by centralizing oil revenues (85% of national income) and institutionalizing ethno-regional quotas through the federal character principle (Suberu, 2001). This incentivized zero-sum competition for federal oil rents, fueling insurgencies like the Niger Delta conflict (Obi, 2019) and perpetuating cycles of clientelism.
The study bridges structuralist theories (Mamdani, 1996) and institutionalist frameworks (Posner, 2005), demonstrating that colonial legacies are not deterministic. Kenya’s agency during its critical juncture enabled radical devolution, while Nigeria’s pre-existing federal system, corrupted by oil dependency, locked elites into path-dependent stagnation. The analysis underscores how diffuse resources (e.g., land) facilitate localized conflict resolution, whereas concentrated resources (e.g., oil) amplify ethnic rivalry.
By offering lessons for equitable governance and democratization, this research contributes to debates on postcolonial state-building, advocating for decentralized institutions and inclusive resource reforms in ethnically divided societies.