Full Text

Turn on search term navigation

© 2025 Yamao et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.

Abstract

In mature markets, where products are widely adopted, understanding how customers switch between competing products is crucial for companies to conduct effective marketing actions. However, due to privacy regulations, it is increasingly difficult to obtain point-of-sale (POS) data with individual customer identifiers (IDs). In this paper, we propose a method that estimates how sales shift between products using aggregated POS data without customer IDs. We formulate this as an optimal transport problem aimed at minimizing the total cost of brand-switching and introduce two regularization terms based on assumptions about sales transitions. We then solve the optimization problem with these regularizations using a projected gradient method.

We validated our approach on proprietary POS data from the Japanese beverage industry and found that the estimated transitions aligned with real market changes. For instance, during a liquor tax reform period, customers switched from products whose tax rates increased to those with lower rates. In the coffee market, many customers moved toward a newly launched brand. Although these results suggest that our method can capture market dynamics, the proprietary data limits reproducibility. In addition, the absence of customer IDs makes it impossible to track individual customer transitions. Incorporating such identifiers in future research could offer more deeper insights into consumer behavior.

Details

Title
Estimating sales transitions between competing products via optimal transport
Author
Yamao, Shoki  VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Ueda, Ryota; Koguchi, Shoichiro; Nakase, Michi; Suzuki, Aru; Toyoda, Kohdai; Kobayashi, Ken  VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Nakata, Kazuhide
First page
e0325173
Section
Research Article
Publication year
2025
Publication date
Jun 2025
Publisher
Public Library of Science
e-ISSN
19326203
Source type
Scholarly Journal
Language of publication
English
ProQuest document ID
3216543304
Copyright
© 2025 Yamao et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.