From Tree Rings to Streamflow: Reconstructing the Hydroclimatic History of the Mississippi River Basin Over the Past Millennia

Abstract

The Mississippi River Basin (MRB), the largest watershed in the United States, plays a central role in shaping regional hydroclimate. This study reconstructs streamflow variability in the MRB from the year 1200 to 2005 by applying principal component regression to streamflow data from 51 gauges and the North American Drought Atlas (NADA), a tree-ring-based reconstruction of the summer self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index. Verification statistics indicated strong predictive skill across the domain. These findings provide critical insight into long-term hydroclimatic variability in the MRB and underscore the value of paleoclimate records for improving water resource assessments.