Real-Time Enhanced Tornado Warning Product Guidance Based on Tornado Debris Signature Height and Population Density

Abstract

This research aims to develop an operational program for enhancing real-time tornado warning capabilities by integrating tornado debris signature (TDS) analysis with population impact assessment. The proposed Python-based tool will ingest Level II radar data to identify and analyze TDS, estimating tornado intensity based on maximum TDS height. For high-intensity tornadoes, the program will project the potential impact area using storm motion vectors and integrate this with population density data. The system will assess whether the situation meets National Weather Service criteria for enhanced warning products, providing forecasters with rapid, objective guidance for critical warning decisions. The program’s performance will be validated using historical tornado cases. Expected outcomes include reduced forecaster cognitive load during severe weather events and consistent recommendations for enhanced tornado warnings. Limitations such as radar distance constraints and time lags in TDS formation are acknowledged.