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Missile warfare has erupted in the Middle East. On June 13th, as the bombs began to fly, S&P 500 futures fell by 1.6%. But as the hours passed, the stockmarket steadily climbed. The index has now recovered to around 6,000, a hair’s breadth from an all-time high.
Such movements reflect a new market mantra: “Nothing ever happens.” The phrase emerged from the depths of 4chan, an online forum, more than a decade ago, and has become a popular meme among youngish investors. On the face of it, the saying seems wildly out of place in an era of both trade war and conventional conflict. But consider the long list of recent events that at first seemed to have epoch-making potential, only to fizzle out, and it appears more reasonable. Examples include China’s anti-lockdown protests, the Wagner Group’s rebellion in Russia and skirmishes between India and Pakistan. Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin are still in charge. Nuclear war has been avoided.
And so cynicism prevails, dips are bought and markets continue to climb. Retail investors are getting in on the act, too. They have piled into stocks, buying...