WILL THE "BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL" BURN THE BOND MARKET?

Abstract

In the shadow of a Trump belligerent presidency and with an economy staggering under its own contradictions, the United States finds itself teetering on a precarious precipice where populist policymaking, fiscal illusions, and dwindling international faith in U.S. Treasury bonds are aligning to form a slow-motion crisis. In parallel, the Federal Reserve remains hawkish, refusing to budge on interest rates amid stubborn inflation, thereby extinguishing hopes of an imminent rate cut. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent may insist, with almost comical bravado, that "we will never hit the wall," but analysts now suggest the real "X-date" could arrive as early as mid-July unless foreign inflows stabilize.