Research on the Degradation Model of a Smart Circuit Breaker Based on a Two-Stage Wiener Process

Abstract

As the global energy transition moves towards the goal of low-carbon sustainability, it is crucial to build a new energy power system. The performance and reliability of Smart Circuit Breakers are the key to ensuring safe operation. The control circuit is the key to the reliability of Smart Circuit Breakers, so studying its performance-degradation process is of great significance. This study centers on the development of a degradation model and the performance-degradation-assessment method for the control circuit of Smart Circuit Breakers and proposes a novel approach for lifetime prediction. Firstly, a test platform is established to collect necessary data for developing a performance-degradation model based on the two-stage Wiener process. According to the theory of maximum likelihood estimation and Schwarz information criterion, the estimation method of model distribution parameters in each degradation stage and the degradation ‘turning point’ method are studied. Then, reliability along with residual life serve as evaluation criteria for analyzing the control circuit’s performance deterioration. Taking the degradation characteristic data into the degradation model, for example, analysis, combined with the Arrhenius empirical formula, the reliability function at room temperature and the curve of the residual life probability density function is obtained. Ultimately, the average service life of the Smart Circuit Breaker control circuit at room temperature is 178,100 h (20.3 years), with a degradation turning point at 155,000 h (17.7 years), providing a basis for the lifetime evaluation of low-voltage circuit breakers.