Development of a wind-based storm surge model for the German Bight

Abstract

Storm surges pose significant threats to coastal regions, including the German Bight, where strong winds from the northwesterly direction drive water levels to extreme heights. In this study, we present a simple, effective storm surge model for the German Bight, utilizing a multiple linear regression approach based solely on 10 m effective wind speed as the predictor variable. We train and evaluate the model using historical skew surge data from 1959 to 2022, incorporating regularization techniques to improve prediction accuracy while maintaining simplicity. The model consists of only five terms, the effective wind at various locations with different lead times within the North Sea region, and an intercept. It demonstrates high predictive skill, achieving a correlation of 0.88. This indicates that, despite its extreme simplicity, the model performs just as well as more complex models. The storm surge model provides robust predictions for both moderate and extreme storm surge events. Moreover, due to its simplicity, the model can be effectively used in climate simulations, making it a valuable tool for assessing future storm surge risks under changing climate conditions, independent of the ongoing and continuous sea-level rise.