Incorporating Uncertainty and Failure Probability in the Design of Urban Stormwater Channels for Resilient Cities

Abstract

The conventional practice in the design of storm drainage systems is based on statistically stationary load and resistance conditions that remain invariant over time. However, uncertainties in the variables affect the design accuracy and the satisfactory performance of these hydrosystems during their operation and service. To overcome this limitation, a design methodology for a storm drainage channel was proposed using a probabilistic framework that incorporates uncertainty analysis of random variables and estimates the system’s probability of failure in terms of design depth and maximum allowable velocity. This methodology employs the Monte Carlo simulation technique and offers an alternative design and analysis approach to strengthen the conventional sizing method for drainage channels in urban watersheds. Based on uncertainty criteria associated with hydraulic design, operation, and prospective changes in the watershed and the channel, appropriate dimensions were estimated regarding design depth and freeboard. The results of this study demonstrate that the annual probability of failure of a channel, when considering uncertainty, is significantly higher than the yearly exceedance probability associated with the hydrological design return period event. Therefore, the proposed methodology is appropriate for estimating the system’s capacity and potential failure risk. This methodology may also be applied to sizing other stormwater drainage structures.