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What are the likely implications of Donald Trump's second term in office? Many of the foundational policies from Trump's first term - such as tax reductions, deregulation, demands that allies increase their military budgets, and increased tariffs on foreign products - are likely to persist, alongside the establishment of a new Department of Government Efficiency to reduce government staffing and expenditures. Trump will confront a divided Congress, a polarized public, potential divisions within his administration, and the emergence of the Global South, with its grievances against the developed North. In addition, the geopolitical landscape is characterized by increased competition and conflict, reflecting the tensions and uncertainties produced by the imbalanced interdependence of global economies and the rise of new international coalitions with different goals and values, raising concerns about Trump 's capacity to effectively navigate these multifaceted challenges.
Keywords: Trump 2.0; Cold War 3.0; populism; nationalism; geopolitics; Global South; Global North
These days, I live mainly in Taiwan, where I hold two full-time jobs: a faculty appointment here at NCCU, and my membership on the board of directors of the Center for Asia-Pacific Resilience and Innovation (CAPRI), Taiwan's first non-governmental, non-partisan comparative public policy think tank. That means I spend far less time in the United States than I do here, so I have less first-hand information about the political conditions there, and less confidence about my ability to forecast what will happen as Donald Trump returns to office and launches his second term as president, especially as he confronts an increasingly complex international environment, which I call Cold War 3.0.
What are likely to be the similarities and differences between Trump's first term in office and his second administration? Will there actually be a Trump 2.0 or will there actually be a surprising degree of continuity with Trump 1.0, or even with Biden 1.0?! think both change and continuity are possibilities, especially in domestic policy. There may also be both similarities and differences in the American policy toward China.
In all these areas, the challenge to prediction is dealing with a great degree of complexity, not only in the United States, with its great high level of polarization, division, disunity, and uncertainty, but also in the world as a whole. That's why I...