Communication Delay Prediction of DPFC Based on SAR-ARIMA-LSTM Model

Abstract

Communication delay, as a key factor restricting the rapid and accurate transmission of data in the smart grid, will affect the collaborative operation of power electronic devices represented by the Distributed Power Flow Controller (DPFC), and further affect the construction and safe and stable operation of the new power system. Aiming at the problem of DPFC communication delay prediction, this paper proposes a new SAR-ARIMA-LSTM hybrid prediction model. This model introduces the spatial autoregressive model (SAR) on the basis of the traditional ARIMA-LSTM model to extract the spatial correlation between devices caused by geographical location and communication load, and then combines ARIMA-LSTM prediction. The experimental structure shows that compared with the traditional ARIMA-LSTM model, the model proposed in this paper predicts that RMSE decreases from 1.59 to 1.2791 and MAE decreases from 1.27 to 1.0811, with a reduction of more than 14%. The method proposed in this paper can effectively reduce the communication delay prediction data of DPFC at different spatial positions, has a stronger ability to handle high-delay fluctuations, and provides a new technical approach for improving the reliability of the power grid communication network.