A Soil Moisture-Informed Seismic Landslide Model Using SMAP Satellite Data

Abstract

Earthquake-triggered landslides pose significant hazards to lives and infrastructure. While existing seismic landslide models primarily focus on seismic and terrain variables, they often overlook the dynamic nature of hydrologic conditions, such as seasonal soil moisture variability. This study addresses this gap by incorporating satellite-based soil moisture data from NASA’s Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the assessment of seismic landslide occurrence. Using landslide inventories from five major earthquakes (Nepal 2015, New Zealand 2016, Papua New Guinea 2018, Indonesia 2018, and Haiti 2021), a balanced global dataset of landslide and non-landslide cases was compiled. Exploratory analysis revealed a strong association between elevated pre-event soil moisture and increased landslide occurrence, supporting its relevance in seismic slope failure. Moreover, a Random Forest model was trained and tested on the dataset and demonstrated excellent predictive performance. To assess the generalizability of the model, a leave-one-earthquake-out cross-validation approach was also implemented, in which the model trained on four events was tested on the fifth. This approach outperformed comparable models that did not consider soil moisture, such as the United States Geological Survey (USGS) seismic landslide model, confirming the added value of satellite-based soil moisture data in improving seismic landslide susceptibility assessments.