An Improved InTEC Model for Estimating the Carbon Budgets in Eucalyptus Plantations

Abstract

Eucalyptus has become a major plantation crop in southern China, with a carbon sequestration capacity significantly higher than that of other species. However, its long-term carbon sequestration capacity and regional-scale potential remain highly uncertain due to commonly applied short-rotation management practices. The InTEC (Integrated Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon) model is a process-based biogeochemical model that simulates carbon dynamics in terrestrial ecosystems by integrating physiological processes, environmental drivers, and management practices. In this study, the InTEC model was enhanced with an optimized eucalyptus module (InTEC_euc) and a data assimilation module (InTEC_DA), and driven by multiple remote sensing products (Net Primary Productivity (NPP) and carbon density) to simulate the carbon budgets of eucalyptus plantations from 2003 to 2023. The results indicated notable improvements in the performance of the InTEC_euc model when driven by different datasets: carbon density simulation showed improvements in R² (0.07–0.56), reductions in MAE (5.99–28.51 Mg C ha⁻¹), reductions in RMSE (8.1–31.85 Mg C ha⁻¹), and improvements in rRMSE (12.37–51.82%), excluding NPP_Lin. The carbon density-driven InTEC_euc model outperformed the NPP-driven model, with improvements in R² (0.28), MAE (−8.15 Mg C ha⁻¹), RMSE (−9.43 Mg C ha⁻¹), and rRMSE (−15.34%). When the InTEC_DA model was employed, R² values for carbon density improved by 0–0.03 (excluding ACD_Yan), with MAE reductions between 0.17 and 7.22 Mg C ha⁻¹, RMSE reductions between 0.33 and 12.94 Mg C ha⁻¹ and rRMSE improvements ranging from 0.51 to 20.22%. The carbon density-driven InTEC_DA model enabled the production of high-resolution and accurate carbon budget estimates for eucalyptus plantations from 2003 to 2023, with average NPP, Net Ecosystem Productivity (NEP), and Net Biome Productivity (NBP) values of 17.80, 10.09, and 9.32 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, respectively, offering scientific insights and technical support for the management of eucalyptus plantations in alignment with carbon neutrality targets.