Functional Connectivity in Future Land-Use Change Scenarios as a Tool for Assessing Priority Conservation Areas for Key Bird Species: A Case Study from the Chaco Serrano

Abstract

Planning conservation for multiple species while accounting for habitat availability and connectivity under uncertain land-use changes presents a major challenge. This study proposes a protocol to identify strategic conservation areas by assessing the functional connectivity of key bird species under future land-use scenarios in the Chaco Serrano of Córdoba, Argentina. We modeled three land-use scenarios for 2050: business as usual, sustainability, and intensification. Using the Equivalent Connected Area index, we evaluated functional connectivity for Chlorostilbon lucidus, Polioptila dumicola, Dryocopus schulzii, Milvago chimango, and Saltator aurantiirostris for 1989, 2019, and 2050, incorporating information about habitat specialization and dispersal capacity to reflect differences in ecological responses. All species showed declining connectivity from 1989 to 2019, with further losses expected under future scenarios. Connectivity declines varied by species and were not always proportional to habitat loss, highlighting the complex relationship between land-use change and functional connectivity. Surprisingly, the sustainability scenario led to the greatest losses in connectivity, emphasizing that habitat preservation alone does not ensure connectivity. Using the Integral Connectivity Index, we identified habitat patches critical for maintaining connectivity, particularly those vulnerable under the business as usual scenario. With a spatial prioritization analysis we identified priority conservation areas to support future landscape connectivity. These findings underscore the importance of multispecies, connectivity-based planning and offer a transferable framework applicable to other regions.