Americas Mining Insight - 2025-08-01

Abstract

We have recently revised up our 2025 US coal production forecast to a 1.0% increase, reversing our previous expectation of a 4.3% decline, with growth expected to be carried by the thermal coal sector. We have also raised our medium-term US coal production forecasts, with the structural decline of the coal sector now expected to take place at a slower pace than previously anticipated—moderating to an average annual rate of 4.3% over our forecast period (2025–2034), compared to our earlier projection of 5.1%. Despite renewed optimism following recent policy developments, we maintain our view that the sector faces a structural long-term decline, albeit it at a more moderate pace.