Trends in 170 years of Australian plant nursery production and climatic drivers indicate a coupled response to climate change

Abstract

A medida que el cambio climático continúa causando calentamiento global, comprender estos impactos en la producción de plantas es crucial para la gestión sostenible del paisaje. Nuestro estudio analizó 170 años de producción de plantas de viveros australianos, identificando tendencias en la composición de especies y su tolerancia al clima. Encontramos un cambio significativo hacia especies tolerantes al clima desde la década de 1940, con cambios sustanciales en la rotación de especies. Nuestros hallazgos tienen implicaciones para el desarrollo de espacios verdes resilientes al clima, el incremento de la biodiversidad y la formulación de políticas sobre silvicultura e infraestructura verde. Al guiar la selección de especies de plantas resilientes, esta investigación apoya estrategias de adaptación al cambio climático más efectivas en la horticultura, contribuyendo al desarrollo comunitario sostenible.

INTRODUCTION

The establishment of nurseries as an industry dates back to the 17th century in England, Western Europe and the United States (Clark, 2012; Pauly, 2007). In Australia, the first nurseries were established in New South Wales in the early 19th century and in Western Australia in the 1820s (Hooper, 2003; Poiner & Jack, 2016). The earliest nurseries in Australian colonial history focused almost exclusively on exotic species due to the aesthetic preferences of British colonists, which prioritised European flowers and trees, and because of the demand for familiar colonial edible plants (Brockway, 1979). From the 1850s, the nursery industry in Australia grew significantly as a result of increased migration, the growth of agricultural and horticultural societies, and growing international interest in Australia's flora (Brockway, 1979; Sim, 2006). By the mid-19th century, private nurseries began to sell native plants to a growing market of people who appreciated native flowers and trees (Althofer, 1956).

Since its beginning, the nursery industry has influenced the development, design and maintenance of urban forests, gardens and planted landscapes, and these are shaped by species available from the local nurseries at the time (Hu & Gill, 2015). Species may be chosen based on local demand of consumers and the relationships between growers and planters (Diver et al., 2001; Jaenicke, 1999), along with other factors, including cultural, historical or functional significance (Pincetl et al., 2013). Therefore, the horticultural flora provides critical information about a region's history and culture and ecological insights.

Nurseries propagate and distribute plants and thus have an outsized influence on the choice of plants people cultivate (Cavender-Bares et al., 2020; Pincetl et al., 2013). Nurseries can also increase local and regional species diversity in managed landscapes (White et al., 2018). The relationship between nursery growers and the increasing number of consumers has amplified the likelihood of cultivation and dispersal of new plant species with turnover in the species available (Clark, 2012; Kinlock et al., 2023; Van der Veken et al., 2008). However, some cultivated plants can proliferate without human intervention and become invasive to natural habitats with negative impacts on ecosystems and societies (Bell et al., 2003; Dehnen-Schmutz et al., 2007).

Through intensive management, nurseries aim to promote vigorous plant stock (Jaenicke, 1999). Different cultivation techniques across nurseries, along with environmental conditions play an important role in the establishment and subsequent growth phase in gardening, re-vegetation and landscaping projects (Benedikz et al., 2005; Franco et al., 2006). For example, diverse propagation, potting, pruning, irrigation and nutritional practices can affect morphological and anatomical plant traits related to hardiness, and influence plant performance after transplanting, which may determine plant survival (Franco et al., 2001; Howell & Harrington, 2004; Paliwal & Kannan, 1999; Perumal et al., 2019; Stape et al., 2001).

Since 1880, Earth's temperature has risen by an average of 0.08°C per decade. Global average temperatures in 2024 were the warmest on record, some 1.34°C above the 20th-century average (NOAA, 2024), and global policy failures have placed the planet on a track for 2.5 to 2.9°C of warming by 2100 (UNEP, 2023). Changes in climate, particularly climate extremes, represent a significant challenge to nurseries, where choice of plant material, production, demand and business operations depend upon tolerant, well-adapted and high-quality plant stock fit for local conditions (Esperon-Rodriguez et al., 2025). Hence, nurseries are attuned to changes in climate; however, given the velocity of climate change, a time lag between climate change and the modifications in nursery production may exist (Esperon-Rodriguez, Rymer, et al., 2022).

As the demand for new and varied native ornamental plants has increased, different methods of species selection and hybridisation have been developed to grow resilient plants well-adapted to different environmental conditions (Ault, 2003; Bartual, 2000) as well as drought conditioning and other culture techniques (Sloan et al., 2020; Villar-Salvador et al., 1999). Thus, understanding historical trends in nursery production composition as a response to climate is crucial for adapting horticultural practices to changing environmental conditions. By analysing the relationship between climate patterns and plant species composition, it is possible to identify which plants have been resilient to climate variations and which may be vulnerable to future climate changes. This long-term perspective enables nurseries, landscapers and policymakers to make informed decisions about species selection and cultivation strategies, ultimately contributing to the development of more sustainable and climate-resilient green spaces (Esperon-Rodriguez, Rymer, et al., 2022; Pincetl et al., 2013).

The nursery industry in Australia makes a significant contribution to Australia's economy. In 2022, the Centre for International Economics estimated that the industry had a farm gate gross value of production of USD 1.8 billion (CIE, 2023). Given the importance of this industry and the magnitude of climate change and the threat it poses to plant species, here we assessed changes in species composition of Australia's native nursery production over the last 170 years. We hypothesised that changes in climate since 1851 towards recent warmer and drier conditions in Australia are reflected in the production of native plant species that are more tolerant to heat and water stress (i.e., coupled response) and with broader climatic niche breadths (i.e., range of climatic conditions where a species occurs). Alternatively, a decoupled response might indicate that increased management interventions (e.g., irrigation and watering) could lead to a wider pallet of species that are somewhat or largely uncoupled from local climatic conditions. Our objectives were to: (1) assess changes in the species composition of nursery production across Australia by identifying spatial and temporal patterns; (2) identify plant species considered ‘popular’ (species produced consistently through time), ‘forgotten’ (species produced historically) and ‘new’ (species produced recently); and (3) evaluate relationships between nursery production composition and species' climatic tolerance to heat and drought and climatic niche breadths.

METHODS

General approach

To summarise our approach, this study involved compiling an extensive dataset of plant nursery production in Australia spanning 170 years. We searched and compiled data from printed nursery catalogues generating a dataset of 17,864 entries encompassing 4807 native plant species. We gathered global occurrence records for all species, and after cleaning and removing species with sparse occurrence records, we retained 3079 species. These species were categorised as popular, forgotten or new, and using climate data for baseline conditions (1981–2010), we estimated species' realised climate niches using occurrence data and climate variables. This methodological approach allowed us to capture the evolving landscape of nursery production and track changes in species composition over an extensive temporal range.

Data collection

We conducted a systematic and exhaustive search and data compilation of plant nursery production composition in Australia for the last 170 years using nursery catalogues. The nurseries were selected from state libraries, with a primary focus on the large historical collections in the New South Wales State Library and the Victoria State Library. We digitised and analysed a large collection of private nursery catalogues, with a mix of urban nurseries in Sydney and those in regional areas as well. We sought to identify the majority of available nursery catalogues in Australia. Printed catalogues include data for 49 nurseries from six Australian states: New South Wales (NSW); Queensland; South Australia; Tasmania; Victoria; and Western Australia (Figure 1; Table 1). Data included records for 55 individual years (e.g., 1851 and 1857) between 1851 and 1988. The oldest nursery is Michael Guilfoyle from the year 1851. Data were aggregated by decade (n = 12 decades) and state for all analyses. Additionally, we collected data for recent nursery production composition (in 2022) from nursery websites. No data were available for the 1910s decade and between 1988 and 2022.

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TABLE 1 Number of nurseries (nurseries) and plant species (species) identified in each state, and years (years) included in each decade compiling plant nursery production composition in Australia for the last 170 years using nursery catalogues.

State	Nurseries	Species
NSW	21	1620
Queensland	4	284
SA	2	736
Tasmania	2	154
Victoria	18	4216
WA	2	478
Decade	Years	Species
1850s	1851, 1857 and 1858	264
1860s	1861, 1866 and 1869	142
1870s	1871, 1873 and 1876	108
1900s	1904	109
1920s	1928–1929	27
1930s	1936–1937	26
1940s	1940, 1941, 1947, 1948, 1949 and 1948–1949	956
1950s	1950, 1951, 1952, 1953, 1954, 1956, 1957, 1958 and 1959	1196
1960s	1960, 1961, 1963–64, 1964–1965, 1966, 1967 and 1969	1160
1970s	1970, 1971, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1978 and 1979	606
1980s	1981, 1984, 1985, 1986 and 1987–1988	1508
2020s	2022	2325

The final dataset compiled 17,864 entries for 4807 plant species native to Australia, including trees, shrubs, annuals, perennials and grasses. Taxonomy was standardised and verified against the Global Biodiversity Information Facility and then against The Plant List (TPL; ) using the Taxonstand package (Cayuela et al., 2017). All unmatched taxa and taxa with warnings were checked manually. Unmatched taxa refer to species names that could not be automatically matched to accepted names in the reference databases, often due to misspellings, outdated nomenclature or incomplete information. These cases required individual verification to ensure accurate taxonomic classification. Synonyms were consolidated, and all infraspecific taxa and cultivars were brought to the species level. Cultivars that did not report complete species Latin binomials were removed.

Species realised climate niches

We collated occurrence records for all 4807 plant species from their global distributions, using combined native distribution and introduced locations. The native distribution provides insights into the original ecological and evolutionary constraints of the species, reflecting the conditions under which the species evolved and adapted. The introduced distribution reveals the species' ability to survive and reproduce in novel environments, demonstrating its ecological plasticity and potential for acclimation and adaptation.

Occurrence records were retrieved from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF.org; 1 March 2023, GBIF Occurrence Download ) and Atlas of Living Australia (). Downloaded records were flagged with the CoordinateCleaner package (Zizka et al., 2019) to remove potentially erroneous records and those with incorrect or imprecise georeferencing, which included those assigned to GBIF headquarters or biodiversity institutions, or which had equal longitude and latitude, fell into the ocean or had coordinates containing only zeros. Additionally, we excluded records with no decimals in longitude or latitude, records that were not identified to species level, duplicated records (defined here as two or more records with the same combination of species name, collection date and location) and records collected before 1970. We removed species with less than 20 occurrence records to estimate realised climate niches. Our final dataset retained 3079 species.

Geographical coordinates of each occurrence record were used to extract climate data and to characterise species' realised climate niches under historical or baseline climatic conditions (see details below for climate data). Based on the global geographic distribution of all 3079 species, we estimated mean values and upper and lower limits of four temperature and precipitation variables: (1) mean annual temperature (MAT) and (2) annual precipitation (AP); and two variables describing extremes of climate: (3) maximum temperature of the warmest month (MTWM) and (4) precipitation of the driest quarter (PDQ). We used the thresholds of the 5th and 95th percentiles of these climate variables as the upper and lower bounds of the distribution of values across the species geographic range. Then, for each species, we estimated the climatic niche breadth of all climate variables as the difference between the 95th and 5th percentiles. Finally, we used the 95th percentile of MAT and MTWM and the 5th percentile of AP and PDQ as thresholds to assess the extremes of these variables as indicative of species tolerance to heat and water stress.

We assumed three potential trends in nursery production composition as a response to climate change. First, species climatic tolerance remains constant through time; that is, there is no evidence of a change in frequency of species produced in relation to their climatic tolerance. Second, a coupled trend, where species with high climatic tolerance are produced with increasing frequency in concert with increasingly warmer and drier conditions in more recent decades. Finally, a decoupled trend, where species with low climate tolerance are produced in greater frequency in recent decades (Figure 2).

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The 3079 species were classified as: (1) ‘popular’—that is, species that have been produced continually across decades in Australia. Given the number of nurseries and states, this determination was made based on the aggregated data; that is, if a species occurred in a single state over all the decades, but not necessarily all years within decades, it would be considered as ‘popular’; (2) ‘forgotten’—that is, species that were produced historically (1851–1960) and are no longer produced, but could represent opportunities to expand the current species palette; and (3) ‘new’—that is, species that have been produced recently (i.e., 2022). By focusing on species produced recently, we aimed to capture the most current trends in species selection and adaptation strategies employed by nurseries to address evolving climatic and ecological pressures.

Climate data

Baseline climate data, the long-term averages of climate conditions during the period 1981–2010, were obtained from the CHELSA database version 2.1 (climatologies at high resolution for the earth's land surface areas; Karger et al., 2017) at a spatial resolution of 30 arc-seconds (∼1 km at the equator). A detailed description of the generation of these data is given in Karger et al. (2017). The use of the 1981–2010 baseline allowed us to characterise species' realised climate niches, which can then be used to infer potential responses to climate change over time. We used four climate variables, two of them describing mean conditions (MAT and AP) and two variables describing extremes of climate (MTWM and PDQ). These variables are known for their biological relevance and influence on species distributions, ecological interactions, and species survival in natural and urban ecosystems (Esperon-Rodriguez, Tjoelker, et al., 2022; Field et al., 2014; O'Donnell & Ignizio, 2012).

Using the coordinates (latitude and longitude) of the 49 nursery locations, we obtained the baseline (1981–2010) values of all four climate variables (MAT, AP, MTWM and PDQ). These values were used in a cluster analysis to group nurseries with similar climates (Figure S1).

Data analyses

Using the complete dataset (i.e., 4807 plant species), we analysed changes in species composition over time (i.e., decades) and across states using non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) based on a presence-absence matrix. NMDS projects multivariate data along latent axes based on distances between assemblages but preserves the underlying dissimilarity structure of the original dataset (Legendre & Legendre, 2012). The distance between decades/states in the ordination space reflects the dissimilarity in species composition, such that decades/states with similar scores are expected to have similar species composition.

Using the climate-niche dataset (i.e., 3079 plant species), we used the non-parametric Kruskal–Wallis test and the post-hoc Dunn test to detect significant differences in climatic niche breadths (estimated as the difference between the 95th and 5th percentiles of four climate variables) and the climate tolerance thresholds (i.e., 95th percentile of MAT and MTWM and 5th percentile of AP and PDQ) of all plant species among years, classes (i.e., popular, forgotten and new) and states. We used Ward's hierarchical clustering to identify groups of nurseries with similar baseline climates (1981–2010), and among decades and states using the species climatic niche breadth of PDQ and climate tolerance thresholds of MTWM 95th and PDQ 5th. Ward's method reduces the increase in the total within-cluster sum of squared error, which is proportional to the squared Euclidean distance between cluster centres (Murtagh & Legendre, 2011). We hypothesised that as climate has become warmer in the last century, there would be a shift in species production in nurseries, with recent decades having species with broad climatic niche breadths and high heat and water stress tolerance. All analyses were conducted in the statistical software R v.4.2.0 (R Core Team, 2022).

RESULTS

Species composition

Across the entire dataset (i.e., 4807 species, 12 decades and 6 states), six genera (out of 966, ~0.7%) represented the ~50% of the total number of species in nursery production (i.e., 17,864 entries): Eucalyptus (3545 records, ~20%; Myrtaceae), Acacia (2409, ~13%; Mimosaceae), Melaleuca (837, ~4%; Myrtaceae), Grevillea (788, ~4%; Proteaceae), Hakea (575, ~3%; Proteaceae), Banksia (497, ~3%; Proteaceae) and Callistemon (373, ~2%; Myrtaceae). The species with the highest occurrence in nursery production across the entire dataset (i.e., aggregated by decade and state) were Acacia baileyana (53 records), Eucalyptus globulus (50), E. leucoxylon (48), E. sideroxylon (47) and Brachychiton acerifolius (46). In contrast, 4412 species (~92%) had fewer than 10 records, with 2213 species (~46%) having one record (i.e., appeared once in one decade and one state).

Species composition varied across decades and was more similar among consecutive decades, finding clusters for 1850–1870, 1920–1930 and 1940–2020. The decade of 1900 and the cluster 1920s–1930s had the greatest dissimilarity in species composition compared to other decades. When we compared the species composition among states, we found no differences across states; however, South Australia had some dissimilarities with the other five states (Figure S2).

Similar to the species composition analyses, the species climatic niche breadth of PDQ and climate tolerance thresholds of MTWM 95th and PDQ 5th clustered together across consecutive decades. Two distinctive geographic groups were formed for both climatic niche breadths and climatic tolerances: (1) NSW, Queensland and South Australia; and (2) Tasmania, Victoria and Western Australia, which was consistent with the clustering of nurseries' climates (Figure S3).

Popular, forgotten and new species

Seven species had continual production (i.e., popular), with two species, B. acerifolius and E. globulus, produced in each decade since the 1850s to the present. Two species have been produced in 11 decades (Acacia cultriformis and Grevillea robusta) and three species in 10 decades (Callistemon rigidus, Eucalyptus citriodora and Pittosporum undulatum). A total of 1038 species were produced across eight decades between 1851 and 1960 (i.e., forgotten); these species do not appear in the subsequent years. A total of 1264 species were produced only in 2022 (i.e., new). We found evidence that popular species had a significantly higher tolerance of MAT (higher 95th percentile of MAT) and AP (lower 5th percentile of AP) and broader climatic niche breadths for all climate variables compared to forgotten and new species. The new species had a significantly higher climate tolerance for MTWM, whereas the forgotten species had a significantly higher climatic tolerance for PDQ (Figures 3 and 4, Data S1).

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Species climatic tolerance

When we assessed the species climatic tolerance (i.e., the 95th percentile of MAT and MTWM and the 5th percentile of AP and PDQ), we found evidence of a coupled response between the nursery production composition and climate change. That is, in recent decades, species with higher heat and water stress tolerance have been produced across nurseries for all climate variables: MAT (Kruskal–Wallis chi-squared = 319.7, p < 0.001); AP (Kruskal–Wallis chi-squared = 594.8, p < 0.001); MTWM (Kruskal–Wallis chi-squared = 616.02, p < 0.001); and PDQ (Kruskal–Wallis chi-squared = 750.8, p < 0.001) (Figure 5, Data S1).

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Species climatic tolerance across Australian states revealed distinct patterns. Species produced in South Australia exhibited the highest MAT tolerance, while Queensland had the lowest. For MTWM tolerance, Victoria recorded the highest value, while Queensland again had the lowest tolerance. In terms of AP and PDQ tolerance, South Australia and Queensland also had the lowest tolerance, respectively, whereas Tasmania had the highest tolerance for both precipitation variables. All variables had significant differences among states (p < 0.001) (Table 2).

TABLE 2 Average and standard deviation (in parentheses) of the 95th percentile of mean annual temperature (MAT tolerance, °C) and maximum temperature of the warmest month (MTWM tolerance, °C), and the 5th percentile of annual precipitation (AP tolerance, mm) and precipitation of the driest quarter (PDQ tolerance, mm), and climatic niche breadths of mean annual temperature (MAT breadth, °C), maximum temperature of the warmest month (MTWM breadth, °C), annual precipitation (AP breadth, mm), and precipitation of the driest quarter (PDQ breadth, mm) for 3079 native plant species produced in Australian nurseries in six states.

State	MAT tolerance	MTWM tolerance	AP tolerance	PDQ tolerance	MAT breadth	MTWM breadth	AP breadth	PDQ breadth
NSW	18.8 (2.9)	30.1 (3.4)	578 (221)	77 (46)	5.1 (2.1)	6.7 (2.4)	638 (388)	103 (67)
Queensland	17.6 (3.4)	28.7 (4.1)	609 (209)	92 (49)	5 (1.9)	6.2 (2.2)	639 (358)	104 (58)
SA	19.5 (3.3)	30 (3.7)	646 (218)	72 (48)	4.9 (1.7)	6.6 (1.9)	727 (366)	111 (79)
Tasmania	18.9 (2.7)	31 (3.7)	481 (177)	58 (41)	4.8 (2.1)	7.4 (2.4)	621 (391)	94 (65)
Victoria	19 (3.3)	31.3 (4.1)	494 (210)	61 (44)	4.5 (2.1)	6.9 (2.6)	527 (335)	77 (61)
WA	18.7 (2.5)	30.7 (3.4)	513 (196)	61 (41)	4.7 (2.1)	7.1 (2.4)	580 (373)	92 (72)
H	28.9	262.7	392.4	360.6	236.5	42.5	280.9	589.9
p value	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001

Species climatic niche breadths

Only for MTWM, we found evidence that species produced in recent decades had broader climatic niches breadths (Kruskal–Wallis chi-squared = 51.7, p < 0.001). For MAT (Kruskal–Wallis chi-squared = 372.2, p < 0.001), AP (Kruskal–Wallis chi-squared = 406.4, p < 0.001) and PDQ (Kruskal–Wallis chi-squared = 993.1, p < 0.001), results were also significant, but opposite to our expectations. Species with narrow climatic niche breadths have been produced in more recent decades (i.e., since 1960s). This trend was more evident for precipitation variables (AP and PDQ) (Figure 6, Data S1).

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In New South Wales, we observed the species with the highest climatic niche breadth for MAT, while Victoria showed the lowest. Tasmania and Queensland had the greatest and lowest breadth for MTWM tolerance. For both AP and PDQ climatic, South Australia and Victoria had the highest and lowest niches, respectively. Similar to climate tolerance, all variables had significant differences among states (p < 0.001) (Table 2).

DISCUSSION

We found significant shifts in nursery production composition over the past 170 years, with a notable increase in climate-tolerant species since the 1940s. This trend suggests a coupled response between nursery practices and climate change. Interestingly, while species tolerant of extreme temperatures and low precipitation were less frequently produced overall, those with broader climatic niche breadths were more likely to be included in nursery catalogues.

Nursery plant production in Australia has dynamically changed in the last 170 years potentially shaped by different climatic factors and showing a potential coupled response to climate change. That is, in recent decades, species with higher heat and water stress tolerance have been produced across nurseries. A similar study in Los Angeles examined long-term changes in nursery plant production from 1900 to 2010 (Pincetl et al., 2013). This study found that the number of genera and tree species significantly increased in the past 20 years (1990–2011). Similarly, our findings revealed an increasing trend in nursery production composition. However, we note that this increase may not directly translate to higher native species production. The observed trend could be influenced by the overall growth of the nursery industry, resulting in greater numbers of catalogues and larger catalogue sizes that include more species. This expansion of total sampling size through time may contribute to the apparent increase in native species counts. To provide a more comprehensive understanding of native species trends, future research should consider analysing the proportion of native to non-native species in catalogues over time, investigating catalogue sizes and their correlation with native species counts, and collect data on actual production volumes, where available, to complement occurrence data. These additional analyses can help distinguish between genuine increases in native species production and artefacts of expanded industry catalogues.

Across all native plants produced in 170 years, only two species have been produced since 1851, B. acerifolius and E. globulus. This could be related to some ecological traits of these species. Brachychiton acerifolius, for example, has a broad distribution across eastern Australia and drought resistance traits (Reynolds et al., 2017), which could contribute to the popularity of the species. Furthermore, the species has very characteristic red flowers, giving it the common name ‘Illawarra flame tree’, which can increase its demand in nursery production composition. Human needs and preferences, along with the desired benefits associated with plantings, are key factors influencing species selection and production (Sæbø et al., 2003). Eucalyptus globulus (Tasmanian blue gum) has a narrow distribution in Tasmania and Victoria (Boland et al., 2006) and it is known for its heat and drought tolerance (Gauthier et al., 2014; Praciak, 2022). This species has been produced in 28 nurseries in all states, and it has been introduced in 43 countries, where introductions to India (in the late 18th century), Africa (including Madagascar), Central and South America, China, the Philippines, Italy, Portugal (1852), Spain, Turkey, New Zealand and the United States (California in 1856) are among the earliest introductions of any Australian tree outside its native range (Goes, 1977; Orme, 1978; Praciak, 2022). This species is also commonly used as an urban tree in cities in Australia and worldwide given its resilience to urban climates (Esperon-Rodriguez et al., 2019; Esperon-Rodriguez et al., 2024).

We found a high number of forgotten species in recent years. Although reasons for their lack of recent demand remain unknown, we found that, in general, these species tend to have high climatic tolerance for both precipitation variables (AP and PDQ), which can be indicative of their potential use in current and future plantings, especially in areas where precipitation is low. In cities, for example, there is an urgent need to increase the species portfolio towards more resilient species given the risk of climate change (Esperon-Rodriguez, Tjoelker, et al., 2022; McPherson et al., 2018). Native species that have been historically produced represent a reliable source of new opportunities including in regions outside their native distributions, especially those tolerant to heat and drought.

Information and knowledge on climate-sensitive species are often not clearly collated or accessible but they are embedded in the practice of arboriculture and nursery industry (Esperon-Rodriguez, Rymer, et al., 2022). Indeed, we found evidence of increased frequency of species with high climatic thresholds (95th percentile of MTWM and 5th percentile of AP and PDQ) in nursery production in recent decades. While new species exhibited higher temperature tolerance, reflecting adaptation to increasing heat stress, historically produced species showed greater tolerance for low precipitation during dry periods. Interestingly, species with narrow climatic niche breadths have become more prevalent in nursery production since the 1960s, suggesting a trend towards specialisation in plant offerings. Importantly, this observed trend may be more pronounced for trees compared to other life forms. Trees, being primarily planted outdoors and receiving less intensive maintenance, are potentially more likely to exhibit a stronger coupled response to climate change. This heightened sensitivity could be attributed to trees' longer lifespan and greater exposure to varying environmental conditions (Harper & White, 1974), making their selection in nursery production more closely aligned with changing climate patterns. Regarding the climatic niche breadth, only for MTWM, we found evidence to corroborate our hypothesis that species with broad climatic breadths have been produced in more recent years. These changes have probably occurred as a need to adapt the production of suitable species in nurseries to rapid climate change and fulfil the demand for more heat tolerant species. Historically, nurseries have based species decisions on field trials to assign cultivars to particular hardiness zones or classes playing a key role in selection of tolerant species (Esperon-Rodriguez, Rymer, et al., 2022; Franco et al., 2006; Sarangi et al., 2015).

Similar patterns of species composition were found temporarily (i.e., across decades) and geographically (i.e., across states) with some differences in South Australia, probably driven by the low number of nurseries and species in this state. Similarly, plant production in 1900s was different to the previous and following decades. Limited data could be causing this finding. We only have data for one single year (1904) for this decade. Nonetheless, the number of species produced during this year was similar to the previous decade for which we have data (1870s), and even higher than the number of species produced in 1920s and 1930s, all of which had multiple years across decades. When we grouped species based on their climatic niche breadth and tolerance, consecutive decades clustered together as an indication of similar climatic niche breadths and tolerance and following geographic patterns, which is consistent with previous studies (Wilson & Moore, 2015). The coolest states of Tasmania and Victoria clustered with Western Australia, while NSW, Queensland and South Australia had species with more similar climate tolerances. Similarities in nursery production composition were also found in the species composition of urban forests in cities of those states (Esperon-Rodriguez et al., 2019). These findings reflect evidence that nurseries tend to produce species that are more resilient to local climates.

We provided insights on how Australian nursery production composition has changed through time in the last 170 years as a potential coupled response to climate. However, we highlight some caveats and limitations of our findings. While we made an exhaustive search and compilation of nursery catalogues, we acknowledge that our data are not complete and do not necessarily represent the entire historical nursery production composition in Australia. Missing catalogues or nurseries that did not have catalogues allow for the possibility that even greater climatic effects exist on the nursery production composition than was found here. Thus, our results may show trends that identified consistent patterns. However, the catalogues that were found here provide a robust, representative sample of the larger, commercial operations. Additional nursery production composition data from contemporary sources can help to corroborate our conclusions and disentangle additional causal factors such as taxonomy and phylogeny and other cultural, historic and socio-economic drivers (e.g., Anderson et al., 2007; Fraser & Kenney, 2000; Kinlock et al., 2023; Kinzig et al., 2005) that were not accounted for here. We recognise that although presence/absence data can help identify shifts in species composition over time, using species occurrence alone may not fully represent production volumes or market dominance of individual species. Future studies could benefit from incorporating production percentages when such data become more readily available, especially for contemporary nursery practices.

Here, we focus only on native species given their importance in maintaining genetic diversity and ecosystems' function and integrity, while buffering against severity of non-native plant invasions (Basey et al., 2015; Delavaux et al., 2023). However, although native species play a crucial role in ecosystem restoration, non-native species can contribute to urban forest resilience in the face of changing climates (Sjöman et al., 2016). Non-native species may possess traits that allow them to better withstand harsh urban conditions and adapt to climate change, potentially complementing native species in urban forestry efforts (Sjöman et al., 2016; Staab et al., 2020). However, careful consideration must be given to the potential ecological impacts and invasive risks associated with non-native species introduction, balancing the need for climate-resilient urban forests with the preservation of local biodiversity and ecosystem functions (Farrell et al., 2022; Kowarik et al., 2019).

We also highlight that we estimated species climatic niche breadths and tolerances based on global occurrence records, which might be incomplete. This is because there are sampling biases related to geographic areas—often in concert with human settlement and infrastructure, temporal bias—reflecting historical collecting efforts or recent research trends, rather than providing a consistent temporal coverage, and taxonomic groups bias—some species are more likely to be recorded due to their conspicuousness, attractiveness or ease of identification, while rare, cryptic or less charismatic species may be underrepresented (Boakes et al., 2010; Chanachai et al., 2024; Maldonado et al., 2015; Meyer et al., 2016; Soberón & Peterson, 2004). Therefore, species geographic distribution data may not entirely reflect climatic constraints and not fully represent the species fundamental niche and climatic tolerance (Gallagher et al., 2010). This can potentially lead to the under or overestimation of the actual realised niche, and individuals at the margin of their geographical range may exist there because of peculiar but highly suitable microclimate conditions or as climate relicts (i.e., persisting amidst unsuitable conditions). Furthermore, artificial selection for horticultural production may change the breadth of climatic conditions tolerated by species as has occurred in agricultural crops (Cairns & Prasanna, 2018), with flow-on effects on nursery production of species' cultivars.

We acknowledge that although climate plays a significant role in shaping nursery production composition trends, other factors contribute to the changes of species portfolios. The nursery industry operates within a complex supply and demand framework that significantly influences species availability and production trends (Fields et al., 2024; Whittet et al., 2016). Nurseries play a dual role in shaping the market by influencing species availability (i.e., supply) while also responding to demand from consumers, municipalities and restoration projects (Whittet et al., 2016). This dynamic interplay is exemplified in the Target Plant Concept, which emphasises the importance of producing plants that are specifically suited to local site conditions and project objectives (Dumroese et al., 2016; Landis, 2009). This approach not only guides nursery production decisions but also influences consumer demand by promoting the use of well-adapted, site-specific plant materials. Additionally, market dynamics, such as sell-through rates and availability of starter material, influence which species are produced and offered (Botha et al., 2007; Whittet et al., 2016). Consumer preferences, often driven by aesthetic appeal and impulse purchases, also play a crucial role in shaping nursery offerings (Conway & Vander Vecht, 2015; Khatamian & Stevens, 1994). Growers and nurseries tend to select species they can cultivate successfully, considering factors beyond climate tolerance, such as disease and pest resistance (Dreistadt, 2001). The emergence and influence of plant breeders have further diversified and refined nursery portfolios. Additionally, retailer decisions and the relative costs of more adaptable species impact the selection of plants available in the market (Whittet et al., 2016). These interrelated factors collectively shape the complex landscape of nursery production composition, alongside climatic considerations.

The management practices in urban green spaces, including nurseries and community gardens, introduce significant anthropogenic influences that may impact our research hypothesis. Soil amendment, irrigation, fertilisation and plant translocation can potentially alter the natural climatic responses of plant species (e.g., Al-Karaki, 2006; Balliu et al., 2017; Carey et al., 2012; Hoskins et al., 2014; Shober et al., 2010), creating microclimates that differ from broader regional conditions. These human interventions may buffer plants against climate change effects, potentially masking or modifying the expected shifts in nursery species composition that our study aimed to detect. Future research should consider quantifying these management practices and their effects on plant climate tolerances to provide a more comprehensive understanding of nursery production composition trends in the context of climate change.

Nursery production composition trends are complex and depend on species selection and availability. While some nurseries are actively tracking plant material provenance to preserve biodiversity within native species populations and regions (Jaenicke, 1999; Maid et al., 2019), our findings suggest that not all trends align with increased climate tolerance. This discrepancy may be attributed to various factors, including limited availability of climate-adapted material or low consumer demand due to lack of awareness about the benefits of these plants. Understanding these potential drivers is crucial for nurseries to overcome barriers and adapt their strategies. For instance, where trends counter increased climate tolerance, nurseries might need to focus on educating consumers about the importance of climate-adapted species or work on improving the availability of such plant material.

Rapid climate change is forcing nurseries to act quickly to maintain supply of suitable plant species with sufficient adaptive capacity to current and future environmental conditions (Esperon-Rodriguez, Tjoelker, et al., 2022). However, challenges exist to achieving this goal. Nurseries need research on tree physiology in local areas to determine species climatic tolerances and inform species choice (Esperon-Rodriguez, Tjoelker, et al., 2022; McPherson et al., 2018). We highlight the need to combine climate model projections and species climatic tolerance with growers' knowledge to better inform species selection for climatic resilience in the nursery production composition and educate consumers. Scientific knowledge regarding climate change projections is not necessarily accessible to growers. Ultimately, sustainable and resilient nursery production requires dynamic changes in species composition in near real-time to enable nursery growers to keep pace with rapid changes in climate.

Our results provide valuable insights that can benefit growers across continents, helping them anticipate potential shifts in plant suitability and demand as climate change progresses. By identifying climate-tolerant species and tracking changes in nursery production composition over time, growers in different regions can adapt their offerings to include more resilient plants, potentially improving the sustainability and economic viability of their nurseries in the face of changing environmental conditions. When data on nursery production composition are not available, other approaches can be used to identify trees for future climate conditions such as use of climate analogues, a long-recognised approach in forest conservation and agriculture (Esperon-Rodriguez, Ordoñez, et al., 2022; Hallegatte et al., 2007; Pugh et al., 2016; Ramírez Villegas et al., 2011).

Finally, our findings can inform strategies to further diversify species lists, incorporating more climate-tolerant species while also preserving those impacted in certain regions. This approach could help nurseries identify potential opportunities for expanding the species they produce and contribute to conservation efforts. By leveraging this information, nurseries can play a pivotal role in promoting biodiversity and enhancing ecosystem resilience in the face of changing climatic conditions.

AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS

Manuel Esperon-Rodriguez, Brett Bennett and Mark G. Tjoelker conceived the study. Manuel Esperon-Rodriguez, Brett Bennett and Mark G. Tjoelker designed the research. Manuel Esperon-Rodriguez, Brett Bennett and Sameer Hifazat collected data. Manuel Esperon-Rodriguez analysed data. Manuel Esperon-Rodriguez wrote the article. All authors contributed to discussion of the content and reviewed or edited the manuscript before submission.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Manuel Esperon-Rodriguez received funding from the Research Theme Program from Western Sydney University. Open access publishing facilitated by Western Sydney University, as part of the Wiley - Western Sydney University agreement via the Council of Australian University Librarians.

CONFLICT OF INTEREST STATEMENT

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest to disclose.

DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT

The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

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