Assessment of the Offshore Migration of Mussel Production Based on an Aquaculture Similarity Index (ASI)

Abstract

Climate change is increasingly affecting the aquaculture sector, particularly in estuarine systems that support high-value production. In the Galician Rías Baixas, where shellfish farming is a cornerstone of the coastal economy, rising sea temperatures, sea-level rise, and changing precipitation patterns pose significant risks to mussel aquaculture. This study presents a spatially explicit Aquaculture Suitability Similarity Index (ASI) designed to identify alternative cultivation areas that replicate the environmental and logistical characteristics of historically successful mussel farms. The ASI integrates a set of environmental variables (water temperature, salinity, biogeochemical quality, current velocity, and wave height) and technical constraints (depth and distance to port), with factor weights derived via expert elicitation using the Delphi method. Results show that most waters are highly similar to current farming areas, suggesting strong potential for spatial expansion or relocation. In contrast, areas near the mouths of the rías and the adjacent continental shelf show lower suitability due to greater oceanic exposure and associated logistical challenges. The ASI provides a robust, transferable tool to inform aquaculture spatial planning and climate adaptation strategies. Its methodological framework can be adapted to other regions and species, supporting evidence-based decision-making for sustainable aquaculture development.