Decision Support for Cargo Pickup and Delivery Under Uncertainty: A Combined Agent-Based Simulation and Optimization Approach

Abstract

This article introduces an innovative hybrid methodology that integrates deterministic Mixed-Integer Linear Programming optimization with stochastic Agent-Based Simulation to address the PDP-TW. The approach is applied to real-world operational data from a luggage-handling company in Lisbon, covering 158 service requests from January 2025. The MILP model generates optimal routing and task allocation plans, which are subsequently stress-tested under realistic uncertainties, such as variability in travel and service times, using ABS implemented in AnyLogic. The framework is iterative: violations of temporal or capacity constraints identified during the simulation are fed back into the optimization model, enabling successive adjustments until robust and feasible solutions are achieved for real-world scenarios. Additionally, the study incorporates transshipment scenarios, evaluating the impact of using warehouses as temporary hubs for order redistribution. Results include a comparative analysis between deterministic and stochastic models regarding operational efficiency, time window adherence, reduction in travel distances, and potential decreases in CO₂ emissions. This work provides a contribution to the literature by proposing a practical and robust decision-support framework aligned with contemporary demands for sustainability and efficiency in urban logistics, overcoming the limitations of purely deterministic approaches by explicitly reflecting real-world uncertainties.