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Abstract

This paper investigates how geopolitical risk influences firm profitability worldwide. Using a global panel of 7126 listed companies from 2013 to 2023, the analysis reveals that geopolitical shocks do not affect firms uniformly. Less profitable and financially fragile firms experience the strongest declines in profitability when geopolitical tensions rise, while more profitable firms show greater resilience and, in some cases, strategic gains. The results also indicate that financial structure, liquidity, tangibility, and innovation capacity explain much of this heterogeneity, highlighting that vulnerability is rooted in both balance sheet fragility and adaptive capability. These findings suggest that geopolitical instability reinforces performance asymmetries across firms and industries, with implications for corporate strategy, investor behavior, and financial stability in an increasingly uncertain global environment.

Details

1009240
Title
Geopolitical Risk and Firm Profitability in Complex Socio-Economic Systems: A Heterogeneous Dynamics Perspective
Author
Duca Ioana 1   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Dumitrescu, Bogdan Andrei 2   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Tănăsescu, Paul 3 ; Leonida Ionel 4 ; Andreea-Mădălina, Bozagiu 3 ; Poleac Dalia 5   VIAFID ORCID Logo 

 Department of Finance, Banking and Business Administration, Titu Maiorescu University, 040051 Bucharest, Romania; [email protected] 
 “Victor Slăvescu” Centre for Financial and Monetary Research, Calea 13 Septembrie, 050711 Bucharest, Romania; [email protected], Faculty of Finance and Banking, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Piața Romană 6, 010374 Bucharest, Romania; [email protected] (P.T.); [email protected] (A.-M.B.) 
 Faculty of Finance and Banking, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Piața Romană 6, 010374 Bucharest, Romania; [email protected] (P.T.); [email protected] (A.-M.B.) 
 “Victor Slăvescu” Centre for Financial and Monetary Research, Calea 13 Septembrie, 050711 Bucharest, Romania; [email protected] 
 Faculty of Business Administration in Foreign Languages, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, 010961 Bucharest, Romania; [email protected] 
Publication title
Systems; Basel
Volume
13
Issue
11
First page
945
Number of pages
19
Publication year
2025
Publication date
2025
Publisher
MDPI AG
Place of publication
Basel
Country of publication
Switzerland
Publication subject
e-ISSN
20798954
Source type
Scholarly Journal
Language of publication
English
Document type
Journal Article
Publication history
 
 
Online publication date
2025-10-24
Milestone dates
2025-08-24 (Received); 2025-10-22 (Accepted)
Publication history
 
 
   First posting date
24 Oct 2025
ProQuest document ID
3275564678
Document URL
https://www.proquest.com/scholarly-journals/geopolitical-risk-firm-profitability-complex/docview/3275564678/se-2?accountid=208611
Copyright
© 2025 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.
Last updated
2025-11-26
Database
ProQuest One Academic