Headnote
ABSTRACT
Objective: To analyze the relationship between fiscal autonomy, financial sustainability, and democratic legitimacy in Mexico's 32 states during the period 2018-2024, identifying how fiscal conditions affect citizen participation and institutional trust.
Theoretical Framework: The study is based on the theory of fiscal federalism, subnational financial sustainability, and contemporary approaches to democratic legitimacy. It considers the contributions of Cabral, Castillo, and Hernández-Trillo (2021), Gleißner et al. (2022), and Monsivais-Carrillo (2020), among others, who highlight the interdependence between fiscal performance and citizen trust.
Method: A quantitative, non-experimental, longitudinal design was applied. Official data from the SHCP, INEGI, and INE were used. The variables analyzed were: fiscal autonomy (own revenues/total revenues), state debt, and voter turnout index. The analysis included descriptive statistics and Spearman correlations.
Results and Discussion: A positive correlation was found between fiscal autonomy and public debt (ρ=0.582; p=0.001), and negative correlations between both and citizen participation (ρ=-0.368 and ρ=-0.420). The states with the highest indebtedness showed lower voter turnout, which highlights tensions between financial performance and democratic legitimacy.
Implications of the research: The findings provide useful empirical evidence to strengthen fiscal federalism and subnational transparency policies.
Originality/Value: The study offers an unprecedented longitudinal analysis that integrates public finances and democratic legitimacy in the Mexican context.
Keywords: Fiscal Autonomy, Financial Sustainability, Democratic Legitimacy, Fiscal Federalism, Subnational Governance.
RESUMO
Objetivo: Analisar a relação entre autonomia fiscal, sustentabilidade financeira e legitimidade democrática nos 32 estados do México durante o período 2018-2024, identificando como as condições fiscais afetam a participação cidadã e a confiança institucional.
Marco teórico: O estudo baseia-se na teoria do federalismo fiscal, na sustentabilidade financeira subnacional e nas abordagens contemporâneas da legitimidade democrática. São consideradas as contribuições de Cabral, Castillo e Hernández-Trillo (2021), Gleißner et al. (2022) e Monsiváis-Carrillo (2020), entre outros, que destacam a interdependência entre desempenho fiscal e confiança dos cidadãos.
Método: Foi aplicado um desenho quantitativo, não experimental e longitudinal. Foram utilizados dados oficiais do SHCP, INEGI e INE. As variáveis analisadas foram: autonomia fiscal (receitas próprias/receitas totais), dívida estadual e índice de participação eleitoral. A análise incluiu estatística descritiva e correlações de Spearman.
Resultados e Discussão: Foi encontrada uma correlação positiva entre autonomia fiscal e dívida pública (ρ=0,582; p=0,001) e correlações negativas entre ambas e a participação cidadã (ρ=-0,368 e ρ=-0,420). Os estados com maior endividamento apresentaram menor participação eleitoral, o que evidencia tensões entre desempenho financeiro e legitimidade democrática.
Implicações da investigação: As conclusões fornecem evidências empíricas úteis headnote fortalecer as políticas de federalismo fiscal e transparência subnacional.
Originalidade/Valor: O estudo oferece uma análise longitudinal inédita que integra finanças públicas e legitimidade democrática no contexto mexicano.
Palavras-chave: Autonomia Fiscal, Sustentabilidade Financeira, Legitimidade Democrática, Federalismo Fiscal, Governança Subnacional.
RESUMEN
Objetivo: Analizar la relación entre autonomía fiscal, sostenibilidad financiera y legitimidad democrática en los 32 estados de México durante el periodo 2018-2024, identificando cómo las condiciones fiscales inciden en la participación ciudadana y la confianza institucional.
Marco Teórico: El estudio se sustenta en la teoría del federalismo fiscal, la sostenibilidad financiera subnacional y los enfoques contemporáneos de legitimidad democrática. Se consideran las aportaciones de Cabral, Castillo y Hernández-Trillo (2021), Gleißner et al. (2022) y Monsiváis-Carrillo (2020), entre otros, que destacan la interdependencia entre desempeño fiscal y confianza ciudadana.
Método: Se aplicó un diseño cuantitativo, no experimental y longitudinal. Se utilizaron datos oficiales del SHCP, INEGI e INE. Las variables analizadas fueron: autonomía fiscal (ingresos propios/ingresos totales), deuda estatal e índice de participación electoral. El análisis incluyó estadística descriptiva y correlaciones de Spearman
Resultados y Discusión: Se encontró correlación positiva entre autonomía fiscal y deuda pública (ρ=0.582; p=0.001), y correlaciones negativas entre ambas y la participación ciudadana (ρ=-0.368 y ρ=-0.420). Los estados con mayor endeudamiento mostraron menor participación electoral, lo que evidencia tensiones entre desempeño financiero y legitimidad democrática.
Implicaciones de la investigación: Los hallazgos aportan evidencia empírica útil headnote fortalecer políticas de federalismo fiscal y transparencia subnacional.
Originalidad/Valor: El estudio ofrece un análisis longitudinal inédito que integra finanzas públicas y legitimidad democrática en el contexto mexicano.
Palabras clave: Autonomía Fiscal, Sostenibilidad Financiera, Legitimidad Democrática, Federalismo Fiscal, Gobernanza Subnacional.
1 INTRODUCTION
Recent research indicates that the fiscal autonomy of Mexican state governments is limited. The Mexican Institute for Competitiveness (IMCO) reports that in 2023 only 15.5% of the total revenue of the 32 states will come from their own sources, a percentage only slightly higher than that recorded in 2015 (15.4%), reflecting a strong dependence on federal transfers (IMCO, 2023). This limited fiscal autonomy results in constraints on the financial sustainability and capacity of state governments to respond to local demands, as well as to strengthen their democratic legitimacy in the eyes of the public. This phenomenon is part of a global discussion on the role of subnational entities in federal systems and the need to strengthen their fiscal powers in order to move towards more efficient and democratic governance (Cabral, Castillo & Hernández-Trillo, 2021).
The sustainability of subnational debt becomes another central challenge. Recent studies on Mexico's most indebted municipalities show that, under certain scenarios, public debt can be considered sustainable, although risks associated with external shocks and structural fiscal weaknesses persist (Del Castillo, Cabral & Saucedo, 2022). At the macro level, Rivas Valdivia (2020) analysed the trajectory of Mexican public debt before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, showing that debt levels can become unsustainable given the high dependence on federal revenues and low economic growth. This series of studies revealed the existence of warning mechanisms implemented by the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) to mitigate the financial risks of the states. However, significant inequalities between entities persist, resulting in tensions between the need for financing and the obligation to maintain longterm budgetary stability. The SHCP Alert System (2023) has been a significant step forward, but it still faces the challenge of promoting a more equitable and functional fiscal federalism.
On the other hand, democratic legitimacy, when measured through electoral participation, shows a downward trend in various recent subnational processes. The decline in electoral participation not only implies a deficit in democratic representation, but may also reflect citizens' perception of government ineffectiveness, particularly when associated with problems of financing , and provision of public goods. At the international level, fiscal conditions that affect institutional trust and citizens' willingness to participate in democratic processes have been documented (Cabral et al., 2021). However, in the case of Mexico, there is a gap in studies that integrate fiscal autonomy, indebtedness, and electoral participation within the same analytical framework, justifying the present study, which seeks to articulate these dimensions to better understand the interactions between public finances and democratic governance in the states of Mexico.
The social relevance of the research is based on the fact that the fiscal health of the states has a direct impact on the provision of essential public services, the capacity to invest in priority sectors such as education, infrastructure and health, as well as on citizens' trust in political institutions. Low fiscal autonomy limits the capacity for government action and also widens the gaps in dependence on central power, weakening the principle of federalism. Therefore, examining how fiscal conditions affect electoral participation allows us to identify whether there is a link between government performance and democratic legitimacy, with direct implications for institutional strengthening and social cohesion.
Furthermore, this study is developed in line with research on public finances, fiscal federalism and democratic governance, providing unprecedented empirical evidence by conducting a comparative and longitudinal analysis of the 32 Mexican states in the period 2018- 2024. It is based on verifiable official sources (SHCP, INEGI, INE) and a robust methodological design that combines descriptive, correlational, comparative and cluster techniques. This identifies regional patterns and observes temporal dynamics that reveal whether fiscal reforms, the application of financial discipline rules and recent political developments have strengthened or weakened democratic legitimacy.
The study population consisted of the 32 states of Mexico, in the period from 2018 to 2024, taking into account the gubernatorial election processes and the most recent fiscal data available. The aim is to answer a key question for the public agenda: how do the fiscal and financial conditions of state governments affect citizen participation and the democratic legitimacy of local political processes? The objective is to enrich the academic literature and guide public policies that strengthen fiscal autonomy by promoting greater financial sustainability and consolidating the democratic governance in Mexico.
2 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
Subnational governance and public finances have been central issues in federalism and development, given that local fiscal capacity conditions the provision of public goods, public investment, and the relationship between governments and citizens. In the case of Mexico, the limited generation of own revenues by states and municipalities has been identified as a structural factor that restricts administrative and fiscal autonomy, with direct implications for the sustainability of local public debt and democratic legitimacy measured in terms of citizen trust and participation.
The analysis of fiscal autonomy, financial sustainability and democratic legitimacy has become a central axis for studying the effectiveness of subnational governance, especially in federal contexts such as Mexico. The capacity of subnational governments to generate their own revenue and manage expenditure has a direct impact on their ability to respond to citizen demands, on local macro-fiscal stability and on the perception of institutional legitimacy. Recent studies emphasise that these three dimensions cannot be analysed in isolation, as there is a dynamic relationship between them: fiscal autonomy conditions financial sustainability, and both affect the confidence and legitimacy perceived by citizens (Cabral, Castillo & Hernández-Trillo, 2021; del Castillo, 2022; Madrigal-Delgado, 2023).
2.1 FISCAL AUTONOMY AND SUBNATIONAL GOVERNANCE
Fiscal autonomy can be defined as the capacity of subnational levels of government to mobilise and administer their own resources (taxes, fees, duties, charges for services) with sufficient discretion to finance local public policies, reducing dependence on conditional transfers from the federal level (Canavire-Bacarreza & Martínez-Vázquez, 2019; Bahl & Martínez-Vázquez, 2022). Subnational governance refers to the set of institutions, rules, procedures, and practices (transparency, accountability, and administrative capacity, citizen participation) that modulate how these resources are collected, allocated, and supervised (IMCO, 2024; Park, 2022).
With regard to Mexico and the region, a series of studies indicate that the proportion of own-source revenue in Mexican states remains low and relatively stagnant. As summarised by IMCO: "in 2023, only 15.5% of the total revenue of the 32 states came from own sources. while more than 80% depends on federal transfers (IMCO, 2024)"; Furthermore, empirical analyses indicate that the structure of decentralisation and internal government rules modulate the redistributive and efficiency effects of fiscal autonomy (Canavire-Bacarreza & Martínez- Vázquez; Bahl & Martínez-Vázquez, 2019).
On the other hand, there are contributions on empirical evidence on state heterogeneity. Cabral, del Castillo and Hernández-Trillo (Cabral, Castillo & Hernández-Trillo, 2021) find that subnational debt dynamics and institutional incentives influence the fiscal capacity and spending discipline of Mexican states, This dependence limits the capacity of governments to carry out strategic long-term expenditure planning, thereby affecting financial sustainability and the capacity to respond to social demands, placing fiscal autonomy as a component that interacts with governance to produce different territorial outcomes.
Furthermore, at the municipal level, there is also evidence of regional disparities: municipalities with greater revenue-raising capacity have better indicators of public investment and fiscal management efficiency (Madrigal-Delgado, 2023; Romero & Fierro, 2022). Thus, subnational governance acts as a mediator: even with relatively low own revenues, states or municipalities with robust institutional structures and transparency mechanisms can achieve better fiscal results and public perception (Cabral et al., 2021).
Fiscal autonomy in Mexico is limited and uneven; its impact on subnational governance depends on the existence of institutions that promote transparency, debt control, and accountability. These factors shape both the capacity to invest in public goods and public perception of the quality and legitimacy of local government. (IMCO, 2024) Subnational governance enhances or mitigates the effect of fiscal autonomy on financial results and public perception. Finally, institutional strengthening is crucial to translate own revenues into effective services and public trust.
2.2 FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY (SUBNATIONAL)
Financial sustainability is understood as the capacity of subnational governments to maintain a balance between revenue, expenditure and debt, thereby ensuring solvency and the ability to respond to shocks without sacrificing the provision of essential services. Among the most recent research on this topic, there is a growing number of studies that propose composite measures (indices) combining debt-to-revenue ratio, current deficit, financial cost and operating margin to assess whether a jurisdiction can sustain its fiscal trajectory in the medium term (Gleißner, Günther & Walkshäusl, 2022).
In Mexico, the literature offers, on the one hand, analyses of highly indebted municipalities, which show that, despite the growth of indebtedness in certain periods, municipal debt remained sustainable within the time frame studied, albeit with vulnerabilities to shocks (Del Castillo, Cabral & Saucedo, 2022). On the other hand, assessments of the impact of the new fiscal rule and its warning system indicate effects of containing debt growth at the state level: "the new fiscal rule reduced state public debt by 4% and per capita debt by 5.8% in the states covered," suggesting that regulatory discipline can improve the sustainability trajectory when complemented by monitoring and sanctions. (del Castillo, 2024).
Furthermore, calculations of fiscal performance at the municipal level show wide regional disparities in terms of sustainability (weaker indices in southeastern regions and municipalities with a low tax base), which shows that financial sustainability is both a question of volume (revenue) and structure (revenue composition, expenditure quality, and liability management). (del Castillo. E.; Cabral, R., 2024)
Regional studies show heterogeneity: entities in southeastern Mexico have lower levels of fiscal performance, while states in the north and centre achieve a greater balance between revenue, expenditure and debt (Madrigal-Delgado, 2023; Gleißner et al., 2022).
Two relevant theoretical implications can be drawn from the above: financial sustainability requires measuring multiple dimensions (relative indebtedness, structural deficit, payment capacity, expenditure structure, efficiency in the use of resources, transparency in contingent liabilities) and centralised fiscal rules can serve as institutional governance mechanisms that moderate systemic risks, although their effectiveness depends on fiscal capacity and regional heterogeneity, acting as key mediators for increasing the probability of sustainability even in contexts of limited fiscal autonomy. (Gleißner et al., 2022)
2.3 DEMOCRATIC LEGITIMACY: DEFINITION AND LINKS TO PUBLIC FINANCES
Democratic legitimacy refers to the acceptance and trust that citizens place in political institutions and electoral processes (Monsiváis-Carrillo, 2020; Hernández-Gutiérrez, 2024), and is operationalised through indicators such as electoral participation, trust in institutions and measures to support democracy. Contemporary literature emphasises that the perception of public performance (effectiveness in service provision, control of corruption, transparency) has a direct impact on citizen trust and, consequently, on institutional legitimacy. Monsiváis- Carrillo (2024) documents that "the persistence of corruption can cause ... citizens' support for democracy to diminish," a key relationship for understanding how governance deficits affect legitimacy.
Recent studies on participation and legitimacy in subnational contexts also show the influence of non-fiscal factors (violence, insecurity, misinformation), but consistently link institutional trust to the quality of public management and transparency. International reports and surveys (OECD; World Bank/IMF) complement the empirical diagnosis by pointing to improvements and setbacks in trust depending on the context and public policies implemented (OECD, 2024).
Democratic legitimacy can be affected by fiscal conditions in the following ways: low fiscal autonomy and weak sustainability limit the capacity of subnational governments to finance services and respond to citizen demands, which undermines the perception of effectiveness and, consequently, trust and electoral participation. On the other hand, the implementation of fiscal rules that ensure sustainability and transparency could strengthen citizen confidence by establishing a channel through which good financial practices translate into greater legitimacy. A series of studies support the existence of these links, although they emphasise that the relationship is not mechanical: governance (transparency, c corruption control, participation) acts as an essential moderator. (Monsiváis-Carrillo, 2020).
The perception of corruption and the quality of public services have a negative impact on legitimacy (Monsiváis-Carrillo, 2020). Recent studies show that in states and municipalities with efficient fiscal management and transparency in resource management, institutional trust and citizen participation tend to be higher (OECD, 2024; Somuano Ventura & Takahashi, 2025).
In Mexico, surveys reflect an increase in citizen trust in local institutions: Latinobarómetro reports that 52% of citizens express trust in the government, compared to 16% in 2018. This increase is partly linked to improvements in governance and the implementation of fiscal rules (OECD, 2024). Democratic legitimacy is sensitive to fiscal performance and transparency: sustainable and accountable subnational governments generate greater trust.
Subnational governance acts as a critical moderator: without robust institutional structures, fiscal autonomy and financial sustainability do not automatically translate into legitimacy.
2.4 THEORETICAL INTEGRATION AND PROPOSED RELATIONSHIPS
* Fiscal autonomy (own revenue/total revenue; tax capacity) facilitates financial sustainability (payment capacity, lower deficits, responsible debt management) when combined with administrative capacities and regulatory frameworks. (Cabral et al., 2021; Madrigal-Delgado, 2023).
* Financial sustainability positively influences democratic legitimacy (trust and participation) when resource management is perceived as transparent and effective. (Monsiváis-Carrillo, 2020; OECD, 2024).
* Subnational governance (transparency, accountability, control institutions) acts as a moderator/mediator that conditions the effectiveness of fiscal autonomy in generating sustainability and, in turn, the capacity of sustainability to translate into legitimacy. (del Castillo, 2024; Park, 2022).https://publications.iadb.org/en/identifying-anddisentangling-impact-fiscal-decentralization-economicgrowth?utm_source=chatgpt.com
Recent evidence and revised conceptual frameworks indicate that fiscal autonomy, financial sustainability, and democratic legitimacy are strongly interconnected at the subnational level ( ). In the case of Mexico, there is a growing empirical base showing limited and heterogeneous fiscal autonomy among states; possible improvements in sustainability when rules of discipline and monitoring are in place; and plausible links between responsible fiscal management and citizen trust, modulated by governance and control of corruption. This framework justifies a comparative longitudinal analysis of the 32 federal entities to evaluate the mechanisms and conditions under which fiscal management promotes or erodes democratic legitimacy.
3 METHODOLOGY
The study adopts a quantitative, non-experimental, longitudinal design with a descriptive-comparative scope. The objective was to analyse the relationship between fiscal autonomy, financial sustainability, and democratic legitimacy in Mexico's federal entities. This methodological strategy allowed us to observe both regional differences and changes over time throughout the 2018-2024 period, covering all 31 states in the country. Mexico City was excluded from the analysis due to its sui generis institutional and fiscal nature. Unlike the federal entities, the capital concentrates both state and municipal government functions, which alters the structure of public revenue and expenditure.
The sources of information come from three official institutions. First, the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP), through state finance reports and the Subnational Debt Alert System. Second, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI), through statistics on state public finances. Finally, through the records of citizen participation held between 2019 and 2023 provided by the National Electoral Institute (INE). The triangulation of these databases ensures the reliability of the data, the replicability of the procedures, and the empirical validity of the findings.
The variables were defined based on their theoretical relevance and ability to reflect structural phenomena of fiscal governance in Mexico. Fiscal autonomy was measured as the proportion of own revenues relative to total state revenues; financial sustainability was assessed based on the level of state debt in relation to own revenues; and citizen participation was measured as the percentage of the electoral roll that turned out to vote.
The analytical strategy was structured in three progressive and complementary stages. First, descriptive and dispersion statistics were calculated for each variable, identifying territorial differences. Second, inter-state performance rankings were developed, which allowed for the detection of significant contrasts in fiscal autonomy, public debt, and citizen participation. Third, the normality assumption was verified to determine the use of Pearson or Speraman correlation to analyse the direction and intensity of the associations.
4 RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS
The analysis was carried out in three phases: statistical description of the indicators, normality and correlation tests, and a categorical analysis using tertiles, accompanied by association and variance tests.
At the descriptive level, fiscal autonomy reached an average of 16.2% and a standard deviation of 6.7, with values ranging from 6.2% in Tlaxcala to 34.9% in Sonora. These differences reflect not only the administrative capacity of each federal entity, but also the local economic structure. States such as Nuevo León, Querétaro, and Chihuahua show higher collection rates, while entities with primary economies are highly dependent on federal transfers, such as Chiapas, Oaxaca, and Guerrero. This suggests that fiscal autonomy is associated with structural conditions of economic development rather than administrative decisions.
These results confirm the great heterogeneity of the subnational fiscal system: while some federal entities manage to generate more than a third of their revenue, the majority remain highly dependent on federal transfers (Tables 1 and 4).
Financial sustainability, measured as state debt relative to total revenue, averaged 26.4% with a standard deviation of 19.5. The extremes range from 0.2% in the state of Tlaxcala to 84.5% in Nuevo León. This result reveals two contrasting scenarios: on the one hand, states that maintain discipline do not resort to borrowing; and, on the other, states whose financial burden could compromise their future investment capacity. Furthermore, states with higher own-source revenue collection are also the most indebted in specific cases: Nuevo León and Chihuahua, confirming a pattern of fiscal co-responsibility, i.e., access to greater resources allows for a greater margin of indebtedness (Tables 2 and 4).
Citizen participation showed greater homogeneity, with a national average of 57.4% and a deviation of 6.3%, ranging from 45.3% in Baja California to 67.3% in Yucatán. Furthermore, in the north, states such as Sonora (47.5%) and Baja California (45.3%) report persistently low levels of participation, while in the south and southeast, the states of Yucatán (67.3%), Tlaxcala (67.1%) and Campeche (64.5%) maintain high electoral mobilisation. This suggests that, despite fiscal differences, electoral behaviour remains more balanced (Table 3).
Descriptive statistics for state indicators (2018-2024).
In the assumption validation phase, the Shapiro Wilk normality test showed that fiscal autonomy (p=0.124) and citizen participation (p=0.878) have a normal distribution, while state debt does not meet the aforementioned assumption (p<0.05). Consequently, correlations were estimated using Spearman (Table 5).
Consequently, Spearman's correlations guarantee the validity of the results. The findings indicate that AFPROMEDIO correlates positively with DPPROMEDIO with a result of rho=0.582 and a significance value of 0.001, indicating that the federal entities with the highest own revenue collection also tend to assume greater financial commitments. On the other hand, PCPROMEDIO resulted in a negative correlation with both AFPROMEDIO, with a result of rho=-0.368 and a significance level of 0.042, and with the DPPROMEDIO variable, a value of rho=-0.420 and a significance value of 0.019, indicating that the strengthening of own resources and the increase in public debt may be associated with lower democratic legitimacy expressed in citizen participation at the polls (Table 6).
5 CONCLUSION
The objective of this research was to analyse the relationship between fiscal autonomy, financial sustainability and democratic legitimacy in the 31 states of Mexico during the period 2018-2024, with the aim of identifying how fiscal conditions affect citizen participation and institutional trust. The findings reveal that financial performance, although necessary for macro-fiscal stability, does not automatically translate into citizen trust or greater political participation, which reaffirms the existence of a gap between administrative efficiency and democratic perception.
From a theoretical perspective, the results reinforce the postulates of fiscal federalism and subnational sustainability, showing that financial autonomy only becomes an engine of legitimacy when accompanied by transparent institutions, accountability mechanisms, and participatory governance structures. Likewise, it is clear that subnational governance acts as a decisive mediator between fiscal performance and institutional trust, with institutional quality being a determining factor in the consolidation of democratic legitimacy.
On a practical level, the findings provide useful evidence for the formulation of public policies aimed at strengthening fiscal decentralisation, promoting financial responsibility and encouraging citizen participation as a pillar of democratic sustainability ( ). This implies moving towards a cooperative federalism that balances the fiscal capacities of the states, encourages local tax collection and ensures greater equity in the distribution of resources and responsibilities.
Overall, the study contributes to the contemporary debate on public finances and governance in Mexico by offering an unprecedented longitudinal analysis that integrates three closely interrelated dimensions: fiscal autonomy, financial sustainability, and democratic legitimacy. and emphasises that only through institutional strengthening, transparency, and citizen co-responsibility can a sustainable and legitimate subnational development model be consolidated, capable of effectively responding to the challenges of Mexican federalism in the 21st century.
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