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Abstract

The present study aims to develop a lumped parameter RC-type model using a Grey-box approach to represent the dynamic thermal behaviour of a healthcare facility with an approximate usable area of 9,000 m2, composed of several pavilions of different construction types and ages. The main objective is to investigate the maximum idealization limit of the thermal and dynamic behaviour of a complex structure in terms of both building configuration and internal activities. The model incorporates a comprehensive collection of construction, stratigraphic and environmental characteristics of the facility. The model uses the monthly energy consumption for air conditioning for the winter season as thermal input data. The identification of the unmeasured and unknown free contributions, which constitute part of the unknown components in the Grey-box model, was performed through Bayesian optimization, minimizing the sum of the quadratic deviations between the predicted and calculated values of the thermal contributions due to the internal air conditioning systems. The study identified four main components of the thermal behaviour related to the central node: transmission losses through the envelope, contributions due to solar radiation through transparent surfaces and two unknown shares depending respectively on the usable internal surface and the exchange of air volumes with the outside. The validity of the model was verified for the heating period from 2022 to 2024 (including part of 2025) using the CV(RMSE) and NMBE indicators according to the ASHRAE guideline 14 (“Measurement of Energy, Demand, and Water Savings”) respecting the limits of 15% and ±5%. The seasonal analysis allowed to evaluate the impact of each factor on the thermal balance and to identify the most effective areas of intervention. The proposed model can be used to predict energy consumption in similar complex structures, facilitating the planning of energy efficiency measures.

Details

1009240
Title
Grey-box models for energy consumption prediction in large scale buildings: the case of an Italian hospital facility
Publication title
Volume
3143
Issue
1
First page
012045
Number of pages
16
Publication year
2025
Publication date
Dec 2025
Publisher
IOP Publishing
Place of publication
Bristol
Country of publication
United Kingdom
Publication subject
ISSN
17426588
e-ISSN
17426596
Source type
Scholarly Journal
Language of publication
English
Document type
Journal Article
ProQuest document ID
3279910554
Document URL
https://www.proquest.com/scholarly-journals/grey-box-models-energy-consumption-prediction/docview/3279910554/se-2?accountid=208611
Copyright
Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd. This work is published under https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the "License"). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.
Last updated
2025-12-06
Database
2 databases
  • Coronavirus Research Database
  • ProQuest One Academic