Phenology-Informed Strategies for Climate-Resilient Peach Production: Shoot Growth, Leaf Fall, and Flowering of Two Low-Chill Cultivars in Humid Subtropical Central Taiwan

Abstract

Global warming has increasingly reduced winter chill accumulation in traditional fruit-growing regions, disrupting dormancy release and bloom synchrony in deciduous fruit crops such as peach (Prunus persica). To evaluate adaptation potential under subtropical conditions, a three-year field study was conducted in central Taiwan using two low-chill cultivars, ‘Tainung No.4 Ruby’ (~100 chilling units, CU) and ‘Tainung No. 7 HongLing’ (~77 CU). Our results demonstrate that both cultivars produced long shoots (>34 nodes), completed vegetative growth by October, and reached natural leaf fall by mid-November. Nonlinear Gompertz and Logistic models accurately described shoot elongation dynamics and growth cessation. Flowering began in mid-January for ‘Tainung No. 7 HongLing’ and mid-February for ‘Tainung No. 4 Ruby’. Seasonal chill accumulation strongly influenced the onset of flower budbreak between apical and basal buds: in the milder 2023–2024 winter (~120 CU), apical–basal onset lags were wider (22 days in ‘Tainung No. 7 HongLing’), whereas in the colder 2024–2025 winter (~280 CU), these lags shortened (14 days). Notably, ‘Tainung No. 4 Ruby’ maintained a consistent apical–basal onset lag between seasons, indicating greater positional stability under variable chilling. Field-estimated CU thresholds for flower budbreak exceeded the reported chilling requirements, suggesting reduced chilling efficiency under fluctuating subtropical winter temperatures. These results demonstrate that integrating shoot growth, leaf fall timing, and chill–heat accumulation provides a phenology-informed framework for cultivar selection and orchard scheduling, thereby enhancing climate resilience of peach production in warm-winter regions.