Content area

Abstract

Accurate cooling load prediction is essential for energy-efficient HVAC system operation. However, the stochastic and nonlinear nature of load data challenges conventional neural networks, causing prediction delays and errors. To address this, a novel hybrid model is developed. The approach first applies a two-stage decomposition (CEEMDAN with K-means and VMD) to process complex cooling load data. Then, a CNN-BiLSTM network optimized by the Crested Porcupine Optimizer and integrated with an attention mechanism is constructed for prediction. Experimental results demonstrate the model’s high performance, achieving a 96.75% prediction accuracy with a MAPE of 3.25% and an R2 of 0.9929. The proposed model shows strong robustness and generalization, providing a reliable reference for intelligent building energy management.

Details

1009240
Business indexing term
Title
A Short-Term Building Load Prediction Method Based on Modal Decomposition and Deep Learning
Author
Lu Shengze 1 ; Yu, Dandan 1 ; Ding, Yan 2 ; Chen Wanyue 3 ; Liang Chuanzhi 4 ; Yuan Jihui 5 ; Tian Zhe 2 ; Lu Yakai 6 

 School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300350, China 
 School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300350, China, Tianjin Key Laboratory of Built Environment and Energy Application, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300350, China 
 School of Mechanical Engineering, Tianjin University of Commerce, Tianjin 300134, China 
 Center of Science and Technology & Industrialization Development, Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, Beijing 100835, China 
 Department of Living Environment Design, Graduate School of Human Life and Ecology, Osaka Metropolitan University, Osaka 558-8585, Japan 
 School of Energy and Environmental Engineering, Hebei University of Technology, Tianjin 300401, China 
Publication title
Buildings; Basel
Volume
15
Issue
24
First page
4455
Number of pages
32
Publication year
2025
Publication date
2025
Publisher
MDPI AG
Place of publication
Basel
Country of publication
Switzerland
Publication subject
e-ISSN
20755309
Source type
Scholarly Journal
Language of publication
English
Document type
Journal Article
Publication history
 
 
Online publication date
2025-12-10
Milestone dates
2025-11-13 (Received); 2025-12-06 (Accepted)
Publication history
 
 
   First posting date
10 Dec 2025
ProQuest document ID
3286268202
Document URL
https://www.proquest.com/scholarly-journals/short-term-building-load-prediction-method-based/docview/3286268202/se-2?accountid=208611
Copyright
© 2025 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.
Last updated
2025-12-26
Database
ProQuest One Academic