Analysis of Coastline Changes in Padang Pariaman Regency, Indonesia: The Influence of Hydro-Oceanographic, Anthropogenic and Sedimentation Factors on Coastal Dynamics

Abstract

Shoreline changes on the coast of Padang Pariaman Regency are influenced by hydrooceanographic and anthropogenic factors. Each village has different dominant factors. This research aims to 1. Analyze the contributing factors to changes in the village-by-village coastline. 2. Analyzing changes in village-by-village land cover in coastal areas. 3. Analyzing existing coastal protection buildings in each village. 4. Analyze the sedimentation contributions from the Limau and Batang Anai Rivers. This research uses a panel data regression method to determine the factors that influence shoreline changes, the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) to determine shoreline changes, SAS Planet image analysis to calculate coastal protection structures, and the Jaelani algorithm to analyze sediment concentration. The study revealed that vegetation loss in Katapiang, Pilubang, Ulakan, and Tapakis villages significantly threatens coastal stability. Ineffective coastal protection exacerbates abrasion in these regions. Additionally, climate change increases the risk of threats to coastal areas. Land use changes in the watershed transport sediment to the estuary, causing coastal accretion and increasing the land area around Gisik Shoal. Overall, the coastline at the mouth of the Limau Watershed experienced more dominant accretion than abrasion owing to the high sedimentation process that occurred in 2003-2018. Simultaneously, the dominant shoreline change that occurred in the Batang Anai watershed is (abrasion). Each village has a different dominant shoreline change factor. Therefore, the solution applies to each region. Stakeholders must understand this condition to manage coastal areas more effectively.