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Abstract
The year in review saw a Myanmar still mired in conflict. Both sides of the political divide continued to assert their claim to govern amidst deteriorating socio-economic conditions, conscription fears and an increasingly uncertain future for many communities struggling with the consequences of the 2021 coup. As of Dec 2024, the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (Burma) listed at least 6,000 deaths since the 2021 coup and over 28,000 arrests, of which over 21,000 remain in detention. Despite its receding administrative control across several parts of Myanmar, and the loss of significant and strategic commands and posts, particularly in the northern Shan and Rakhine States, the State Administrative Council (SAC) remains unlikely to lose control of major cities, such as state and regional capitals, or in ethnic Bamar areas. Even so, the aftermath of Operation 1027 in late 2023, along with its second phase launched in Jun 2024, have revealed the implausibility of the SAC's nationwide census efforts, which are intended to pave the way for an election aimed at legitimizing the SAC's governance.