World Commodity Forecasts Global page November 2025

Abstract

Long-term demand for metals like copper, nickel and aluminium will be driven by the green transition, but near-term prices for critical minerals (for example lithium, cobalt and graphite) will remain subdued until at least 2026 amid oversupply and weaker than expected demand. The global nickel market will remain temporarily oversupplied in the short run, but we continue to forecast rapid demand growth from downstream applications, particularly stainless steel production and EV batteries. Demand for certain base metals, critical minerals and rare earths used in clean energy technology-notably copper, nickel, zinc, cobalt, lithium, graphite and silicon-will increase twofold, and in some cases up to fivefold, by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Overview

• Base metals are set to rebound strongly in 2026-27, after a subdued 2025 when steep US tariffs and policy uncertainty, particularly under the administration of the president, Donald Trump, weighed on global demand and investor sentiment.
• Aluminium prices remain under pressure following steep US tariffs-now doubled to 50%-but recent US trade agreements have lifted market sentiment.
• US copper prices surged after the 50% tariff announcement on July 8th, but dropped sharply once exemptions for copper ore and refined copper were introduced on July 30th, narrowing the Comex-LME spread.
• Long-term demand for metals like copper, nickel and aluminium will be driven by the green transition, but near-term prices for critical minerals (for example lithium, cobalt and graphite) will remain subdued until at least 2026 amid oversupply and weaker than expected demand.

Industrial commodities

EIU forecasts that prices of industrial raw materials (IRM) will start increasing significantly again from 2026, after US trade policy dampened rises in 2025. Base metals in particular are set to make strong gains in 2026-27. Aluminium has been one of the hardest hit of the base metals, with the Trump administration having extended existing 25% tariffs on aluminium and steel to all countries, and then doubling the tariff to 50%. However, new trade agreements between the US and major trading partners and blocs have bolstered market sentiment for aluminium (and all base metals) since mid-2025. Copper prices, especially on the US Commodities Exchange (Comex), have been exceptionally volatile given the ever-changing tariff landscape, with the Trump administration announcing 50% tariffs on copper imports in early July, only to backtrack and exempt imports of copper ore and refined copper by the end of the month. The administration is also implementing quotas, with the aim of retaining more domestically produced copper feedstock for domestic use, which will also tighten the global market, given the importance of US scrap copper to supply chains in China and the rest of Asia. After being buffeted for most of the year, the global benchmark price on the London Metals Exchange (LME) has started to rise significantly in recent weeks.

Climate change and technology advancements, particularly relating to the decarbonisation agenda, will sustain strong demand for aluminium, copper and nickel. At the same time factors such as resource nationalism and stricter environmental laws will limit the pace of mine supply growth, which will cause copper prices to continue rising. Copper consumption will remain supported by green energy investments and infrastructure upgrades. The global nickel market will remain temporarily oversupplied in the short run, but we continue to forecast rapid demand growth from downstream applications, particularly stainless steel production and EV batteries. Refined nickel production in Indonesia and China has started a period of rapid growth that will persist in 2026, materially loosening the global market, but this will be constrained by weaker mine supply in the long term. Nickel-mining companies are already exhibiting capital discipline in response to low prices, deferring expansion projects and sometimes even shuttering uneconomic mine capacity.

The green transition will raise demand for critical minerals like cobalt, graphite and lithium. Demand for certain base metals, critical minerals and rare earths used in clean energy technology-notably copper, nickel, zinc, cobalt, lithium, graphite and silicon-will increase twofold, and in some cases up to fivefold, by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Recent demand has not lived up to these expectations, however, with prices for many critical minerals and rare earths falling to all-time lows and likely to remain depressed until sometime in 2026 at the earliest.

Statistical appendix: industrial raw materials

A selection of key charts curated by our analysts