KNIGHT RIDDER NEWSPAPERS: [31REGION Edition]

Abstract

From Pakistan to Libya, Northern Ireland to Syria, governments are renouncing support for terrorist groups. They are expelling or arresting their leaders and negotiating their ways out of longstanding conflicts and international sanctions.

Just this week, Pakistan extradited a Jordanian suspected of leading a group planning attacks against U.S. targets and tourist sites in Jordan. The return to Jordan of Khalil Deek, who is said to be an associate of terrorism financier Osama bin Laden, came days after Jordan arrested 13 others in the alleged network. Last month, Jordan deported four leaders of the militant Palestinian group Hamas to Qatar.

Analysts are especially encouraged by events in the Middle East. Israel's Arab neighbors now recognize its right to exist and seek a comprehensive peace. Lackluster economies across the region are forcing once radical nations to adapt to international standards. So are continuing talks between Israel and its Arab neighbors. If Syria and Israel reach a peace agreement, the future of Syrian-supported militant groups like Hezbollah seems bleak.

With ancient enemies talking peace in the Middle East and violent ideologies fizzling comes a remarkable bit of good news: The world is becoming less hospitable to terrorists.

From Pakistan to Libya, Northern Ireland to Syria, governments are renouncing support for terrorist groups. They are expelling or arresting their leaders and negotiating their ways out of longstanding conflicts and international sanctions.

"The world is getting smaller for [terrorists]," said a U.S. official who tracks international terrorism.

It is a trend that government officials and experts are reluctant to broadcast. There are still many extremist groups - some of them well-financed or with state backing - capable of trashing mounting optimism with a single blast.

And the next few weeks could sorely test the premise. Already, there have been terrorist threats against Christians flocking to holy sites to celebrate the millenium, and against Syrian and Israeli leaders who resume peace talks Jan. 3.

Troubled by reported plots against American tourists, the State Department last week sent out a worldwide advisory warning of possible terrorist attacks abroad.

But in the 16 months since the dual bombings of U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, there is a growing sense that the United States and its allies are successfully pursuing bad actors. They are also persuading former hosts to withhold the tools of terror - money, arms, diplomatic cover and safe havens.

"States are under pressure from the West, and for various reasons, are cutting down support of terrorism," said Daniel Byman, a specialist on Middle East terror at the Rand Corp. in Washington.

Just this week, Pakistan extradited a Jordanian suspected of leading a group planning attacks against U.S. targets and tourist sites in Jordan. The return to Jordan of Khalil Deek, who is said to be an associate of terrorism financier Osama bin Laden, came days after Jordan arrested 13 others in the alleged network. Last month, Jordan deported four leaders of the militant Palestinian group Hamas to Qatar.

Analysts are especially encouraged by events in the Middle East. Israel's Arab neighbors now recognize its right to exist and seek a comprehensive peace. Lackluster economies across the region are forcing once radical nations to adapt to international standards. So are continuing talks between Israel and its Arab neighbors. If Syria and Israel reach a peace agreement, the future of Syrian-supported militant groups like Hezbollah seems bleak.

Nevertheless, the identities of Hezbollah and Hamas in the Palestinian territories remain invested in war against Israel. They threaten trouble. Hamas founder Sheik Ahmed Eosin, on Friday urged 20,000 supporters to "continue our holy war and let the march of martyrs go on."

And even as most of the Middle East becomes a safer place, experts note that there is a rise of terrorism on the periphery, especially in the Caucasus and Afghanistan. Iran, too, remains a wild card, with forces tugging it in different directions.

"The zones of chaos are shifting," Byman said. "There remain places where terrorists can arm, train and organize, [especially] where you see conflict and weak central governments. That's where terrorists can exploit the lack of central authority."

Worldwide, terrorist attacks are declining, although they have gained in potency. There were 273 terrorist attacks last year, a drop from 304 the previous year and the lowest annual total since 1971. The number of fatalities, however, was the highest on record: 741.

The Clinton administration, which claims a "zero- tolerance" policy, has aggressively pursued terrorists. U.S. authorities cracked the 1993 World Trade Center bombing and quickly traced the African embassy bombings to bin Laden. However controversial, President Clinton's decision to bomb suspected terror sites in Afghanistan and Sudan showed that the United States would strike back.

"Our effort to strengthen the rule of law against terrorism is global," Secretary of State Madeleine Albright told Congress in February. "At its heart is the message that every nation has a responsibility to arrest or expel terrorists, shut down their finances and deny them safe haven."

Although it publicly vows not to negotiate with terrorists, the United States is willing to talk with nations it accuses of sponsoring them. Of the seven nations listed as supporting terrorism -

Cuba, Syria, North Korea, Sudan, Libya, Iran, Iraq - U.S. officials have deepened cooperation with the first five and made overtures to a sixth, Iran.

Libya's evolution has been especially gratifying for the United States. After enduring a decade of United Nations' sanctions, Moammar Khadafy finally turned over for trial two Libyan intelligence agents suspected of blowing up Pan Am Flight 103 in 1988. Although analysts don't believe that the suspects would have acted without Khadafy's own authorization, the concession was a major step in regaining Libya's legitimacy.

Iran's positions on terrorism are inconsistent. On one hand, U.S. officials and experts have been encouraged by signals from its moderate president, Mohammed Khatami, who has seemed more pro-West and less supportive of violence to achieve political ends. But some say Khatami is a virtual hostage to hard-line clerics, who have funneled funds and arms to Hamas and Hezbollah and urged them to do whatever they could to disrupt peace negotiations in the Middle East.

"Iran appears to be bucking the trend," said Mike Ackerman, managing director of The Ackerman Group, a Miami-based international security firm. "I'm concerned that the hard-liners are going to take their stand by encouraging a return to terrorism. They see red at the sign of any kind of peace between the Palestinians and Israelis and Syria and Israel."

Afghanistan's ruling Taliban militia, which is providing refuge to bin Laden, has thus far appeared unmoved by U.S.-orchestrated pressure, including international sanctions that froze its assets abroad and denied foreign landing rights to its airline.

The administration warned last week that it would hold the Taliban responsible for any attacks against Americans directed by bin Laden. U.S. officials believe that even the Taliban will ultimately redeem itself.

"They know they have to become accountable members of the international community, and the world is so intertwined," said the U.S. antiterrorism official. "It's difficult for a state to go it alone today.