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Malaysia politics: Mahathir's farewell?
COUNTRY BRIEFING
FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT
Even if the annual congress of Malaysia's main ruling party, which opened on June 19th, fails to match last year's gathering for headline-grabbing melodrama, it will be a landmark event. Barring surprises, the 2003 general assembly of the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO)--the main party in the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition--will be the last under the tenure of Mahathir Mohamad, Malaysia's prime minister of 22 years. With Dr Mahathir scheduled to retire in October, Malaysia faces a period of heightened political uncertainty.
On the surface, everything appears set for a smooth transition. In June last year, Dr Mahathir surprised delegates with a famously tearful resignation, which his supporters had to persuade him to retract. This time, by contrast, the leadership insists there will be no surprises: Dr Mahathir will step down on schedule; his designated successor, Abdullah Badawi, currently the deputy prime minister, will take over the reins both as premier and head of UMNO; and that will be that.
As yet, there has been no bombshell. Dr Mahathir's opening address to this year's UMNO general assembly, though again melodramatic, was notable mainly for colourful attacks on Western morals and warnings against foreign imperialism and anti-Muslim foreign policy. Much of the conference is likely to be uneventful, devoted to celebrating the achievements of the outgoing prime minister.
But beneath the appearance of continuity (and unity), uncertainty remains. Specifically, there are questions over the leadership succession's impact on determining a general...